The rumors of Nintendo's death* have not been exaggerated.

Plainview

I am a sinner.
Sep 11, 2013
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25,087
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*In the home console world that is...

Nintendo is dead. They're dead in the home console business. They know this. Video game enthusiasts know this. Everyone knows this. That's the reason for the Nintendo NX home/portable hybrid. Once the new 'system' drops, so will Nintendo out of the home console market. I'm happy about it and you should be too!

Nintendo's demise has been a long time coming. Starting with the Nintendo GameCube, and ending with the Wii U, the Wii was an anomaly that'll never be duplicated again, the writing has been on the wall. The GameCube sold around a measly 22 million units in its lifespan. For comparison, Microsoft's first Xbox sold around 24 million. Nintendo had a juggernaut with the Wii and it tapped into a starving niche market that ended up spreading like wildfire. Sadly, Nintendo tried to be different again and took a bigger gamble with the Wii U and it has bit them in the ass.

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To date, the Wii U has sold just over 13 million units in its nearly four years on the market. Microsoft's Xbox One is estimated to have sold nearly 27 million and Sony's PlayStation 4 eclipsed 40 million units as of May 2016. Both the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 have been on sale for a year less than the Wii U has been, but they have sold double, and nearly quadruple, respectively, than Nintendo's latest console. The sales have been so poor that publishers, and developers, have dropped support for the Wii U leaving Nintendo as the only big publisher for it.

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With the utter disappointment that the Wii U is, developers aren't rushing to Japan to get their hands on the NX development kit. At least that’s what people are saying. You tell me. Without third party support, Nintendo will be left to have the goods at the NX launch to push the new console. Sadly, history isn't on Nintendo's side. Their support for the Wii U was anything but stellar. It's received one Zelda game, well, it will receive one Zelda game in its lifespan. The NX gets a benefit from that as The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild should be ready to go at the NX's launch. While that may seem like a surefire console mover, remember, the highest selling Zelda game racks in in under eight million units sold on a home console, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess. That was over the life of the game on the Wii. Breath of the Wild will move consoles on day one, but it won't sell more than five million consoles, a very high guestimate, in a year. Given Nintendo's track record, they won't have much else in the first year to try and push more console sales.

Gone are the days, long gone, where the masses look forward to a new Nintendo console. Now, gamers look at a new Nintendo console with a pessimistic slant wondering what gimmick they will come up with next. A console/portable hybrid is up next. Nintendo is on record as saying they're not looking to be the technological leader in the home console market, and, if rumors are true, they'll be a distant third in that regard even with consoles that have been out for over three years prior to the rumored NX launch.

The SNES was a solid beast of a console, and, overall, the technological leader of the home TV. The Nintendo 64 was, for all intents and purposes, the go to home console, with Sega screwing up at every possibility with the Sega Saturn launch and support. The GameCube stunted any inroads the Nintendo 64 had and was dwarfed by the PlayStation 1. Then came along Microsoft, with the vision for the future path of the home console market, and the, and Sony, ran with it. Again, the Wii was an anomaly that'll never happen again. It was the first time ever that the worst spec console, by a large margin, led a generation in sales. Those times are over.

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Competition in the home console market is a great thing. Having three powerhouses vying for the top spot spurs innovation and advancement. Unfortunately, Nintendo didn't get the memo. They're trying to ride the back of their very profitable handheld division into the home console market this time. It won't work. If the rumors are true, the NX is dead. While three console makers is a good thing for the industry, I'm eagerly looking forward to Nintendo's departure from the home console market and you should too.

With no home console market, and the mobile game industry steadily moving towards mobile devices, the 3DS, and the forthcoming flop, the Nintendo DX, Nintendo will have no choice but to start looking to become a third party publisher. They've already toyed with iOS, though it wasn't what gamers were expecting (As of yesterday they’re publishing a new Super Mario game designed for iOS). Nintendo will have to look seriously at publishing games on Sony's and Microsoft's home consoles and also for the PC. With Nintendo being forced to do that, or fold as a company since they no longer own their only guaranteed moneymaker, Pokemon, their audience will be much greater than it has ever been at any point in their existence when they go third party.

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Imagine a true successor to Super Mario 64 on the Xbox 'Scorpio'? Imagine a Zelda game where no graphical compromises will have to be made with the already legendary gameplay and story telling we’ve all come to live? Imagine Nintendo not having to build, and maintain, their own multiplayer network. They can just use Xbox Live and PlayStation Network. Going third party will allow Nintendo to just focus on games. After all, it's all about the games.

Obviously, much of the above is my opinion and not everything will come to fruition. While it may not, I really hope it does, and, as a gamer, you should be hoping for the same. It will open Nintendo to a world of creative focus that few of their game designers have ever been exposed to. Their creative juices can run wild and create games they had always envisioned with no restrictions. The gaming world will be at their disposable and Mario, Link and Samus will have an audience they never dreamed possible. I, for one, am looking forward to it!
 
People have been telling me Nintendo is going 3rd party for 15 years
 
People have been telling me Nintendo is going 3rd party for 15 years

They need to (or at least, on non-handheld devices). What do they do well? They have some evergreen IP and can make some really great games with that IP. If they could just focus on making those games great rather than making one that plays nicely with the Wiimote and the next with their tablet and now one with detachable controllers and the next one with a dance mat as the only control input, it would be great.

It's time to build a wall around their console building division and make Nintendo Great Again! (#racism not included).
 
They need to (or at least, on non-handheld devices). What do they do well? They have some evergreen IP and can make some really great games with that IP. If they could just focus on making those games great rather than making one that plays nicely with the Wiimote and the next with their tablet and now one with detachable controllers and the next one with a dance mat as the only control input, it would be great.

It's time to build a wall around their console building division and make Nintendo Great Again! (#racism not included).

They also make a killing as first party and because of that they don't have to sell 100 million consoles to make lots of money. NX may not be what people here want but it may not a terrible idea and if they could keep the same type of success as the 3DS then they will be fine and there will be no Zelda on Xbox


The SNES was a solid beast of a console, and, overall, the technological leader of the home TV. The Nintendo 64 was, for all intents and purposes, the go to home console, with Sega screwing up at every possibility with the Sega Saturn launch and support. The GameCube stunted any inroads the Nintendo 64 had and was dwarfed by the PlayStation 1. Then came along Microsoft, with the vision for the future path of the home console market, and the, and Sony, ran with it. Again, the Wii was an anomaly that'll never happen again. It was the first time ever that the worst spec console, by a large margin, led a generation in sales. Those times are over.

PS1?

PS2?
 
Being a 3P publisher won't fix their problems in my opinion. The over reliance on old IPs only exacerbates the problem of being unable to create a new IP capable of competing on the modern day market. It'll look good at first because it's new and fresh territory for Nintendo, but like the Wii and subsequent attempted cash-in that was Wii U, the well will dry up. In a way, they'll end up exactly like Sega. Except it won't come at an exciting time when the game industry is getting a new player. They made a s*** ton of money off of the Wii, but mismanaged their investment towards a tablet. Sure, it's a step above typical tablet games, but they ended up looking like copycats, had a dumb name for their first HD console, and had hardware that couldn't even compare to the X1 or PS4. They overvalued their IPs, hardcore fanbase, and overall brand name. I'm not saying change the strategy completely, but either create games that'll actually appeal to gamers that aren't casual or Nintendo/Japanese-core, or make hardware that'll allow third parties to fill that gap. There's no way Nintendo couldn't have afforded a superior console with all the success the Wii brought them.
 
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People have been telling me Nintendo is going 3rd party for 15 years

I wouldn't say those people were wrong though. It was more Nintendo's stubbornness to face reality that postponed things.

But I am with Plainview and think the NX will be another flop.
 
They also make a killing as first party and because of that they don't have to sell 100 million consoles to make lots of money. NX may not be what people here want but it may not a terrible idea and if they could keep the same type of success as the 3DS then they will be fine and there will be no Zelda on Xbox



PS1?

PS2?
The PS1 did catch fire. I can agree with that, but, this was back when Nintendo's franchises made it mandatory you own a Nintendo console. That's not how it is now and many people are passing them over. As far as PS2 goes, it was more powerful than the GameCube and Dreamcast.

Nintendo isn't making a killing anywhere. They haven't been for a while. They more than halved their forecast in early 2016 from 35 billion yen to 17 billion yen. Nintendo is in trouble and the NX isn't going to help them.
 
The PS1 did catch fire. I can agree with that, but, this was back when Nintendo's franchises made it mandatory you own a Nintendo console. That's not how it is now and many people are passing them over. As far as PS2 goes, it was more powerful than the GameCube and Dreamcast.

Nintendo isn't making a killing anywhere. They haven't been for a while. They more than halved their forecast in early 2016 from 35 billion yen to 17 billion yen. Nintendo is in trouble and the NX isn't going to help them.

So 17 billion yen in real money is what....£120/$160 million?
 
The PS1 did catch fire. I can agree with that, but, this was back when Nintendo's franchises made it mandatory you own a Nintendo console. That's not how it is now and many people are passing them over. As far as PS2 goes, it was more powerful than the GameCube and Dreamcast.

Nintendo isn't making a killing anywhere. They haven't been for a while. They more than halved their forecast in early 2016 from 35 billion yen to 17 billion yen. Nintendo is in trouble and the NX isn't going to help them.

Well it wasn't that mandatory. It sold 30 million when the Playstation sold 100 million. The PS2 was not more powerful than the Gamecube.
 
Well it wasn't that mandatory. It sold 30 million when the Playstation sold 100 million. The PS2 was not more powerful than the Gamecube.
Even if it GC was more powerful, negligible, at best, it wasn't by a "a large margin" and the DC was still at the bottom of the barrel.
 
Even if it GC was more powerful, negligible, at best, it wasn't by a "a large margin" and the DC was still at the bottom of the barrel.

and just months after the PS2 was out it was discontinued making the PS2 the weakest console and sold more than any console ever. Console power may or may not be what it is all about now but it sure as hell wasn't the case then.
 
They also make a killing as first party and because of that they don't have to sell 100 million consoles to make lots of money. NX may not be what people here want but it may not a terrible idea and if they could keep the same type of success as the 3DS then they will be fine and there will be no Zelda on Xbox

I think my main issue was that I couldn't even bring myself to play through the rest of the Metroid Prime trilogy (despite owning it and the Wii) because playing the game with the wii-mote was awful. I was fortunate to have played the first on the GC. I also expect I will never own another mainline Nintendo console.
 
I still think people put way too much stock into the demise of Nintendo. I'm not a big fan of NeoGAF, i don't have an account there and probably never will but recently i've been reading some threads for fun. It surprised me how many people said they really love playing their Wii U. At 13 million sold with no third party support you have to realize that all of those gamers are hardcore Nintendo gamers. Why would a casual buy a Wii U with no Call of Duty, Madden, or Grand Theft Auto? They wouldn't. I think 13 million is a decent number considering how many shortcomings the console has.

Now, can they survive in the future going the way they are? Maybe not. But i still think it's early to completely write them off and say that the NX will be their last console. Who the hell knows how well this thing is going to sell or what it even really is at this point. As long as Nintendo is delivering the best first party games on the planet there will be a place for them in this industry in my opinion. They don't take a risk on the hardware so they're not losing money. Let go of the NES and SNES nostalgia days, they're not coming back and i'm fine with that. I don't know, i've been accused of being a PS fanboy, and an Xbox fanboy. If anything, i'm a Nintendo fanboy. Maybe that's it. I'm never going to let go of the memories. I'd rather they keep putting out consoles but if going third party keeps them afloat then let it happen.
 
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I'm not putting dirt on Nintendo just yet. Seems like when their backs are against the wall they release some new phenomenon.
 
Even if it GC was more powerful, negligible, at best, it wasn't by a "a large margin" and the DC was still at the bottom of the barrel.

You leave the Dreamcast out of this! Best console ever. :(
 
Personally, I would LOVE to see Ninty go pure Handheld for hardware. Keep handheld exclusivity to Nintendo products, but go third party and develop for the other Consoles. Holy Hell, can you imagine how much money they'd make if they released a Mario Collection?! Hand over fist son! THey could live the rest of their lives off of re-releases of their franchises! DO IT NINTENDO!!
 
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IMO, I don't think Nintendo is going away any time soon as it relates to the home console market. The NX maybe a departure from what we traditionally call a home console ( maybe until the official reveal) but I don't think they will leave that market entirely. If the hybrid console sells like wild fire, we may see imitation of features like we saw with Microsoft and Sony with motion controls to match the Wii. If the NX fails, they'll go back to the drawing board and try to find something else that works. And while shareholders might not want to, Nintendo can afford to play this game with just the cash reserves that they have sitting in the bank. Again this is arm chair analysis, which may turn out to be 100% accurate or 100% inaccurate.
 
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I hope they do. Nintendo make great games. Better than their competitors do.

They just can't make a decent console.

I really hope they fair better than Sega. When they went 3rd party, they became the worlds largest 3rd party publisher for digital entertainment.

What are they now? They've ruined Sonic, Shenmu was thrown away and Virtual Fighter?
 
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The only thing that has allowed Nintendo the ability to maintain their status as a console manufacture because the Wii was a beast sales wise after that they never took a loss on their consoles. I don't know if the profits on the later systems after the Wii surpassed the R&D costs though. Regardless of their sales figures of the consoles I'm guessing the attach rate for first party titles on the last few Nintendo systems were astronomical. Nintendo has been surviving off the popularity of their first party titles for over three decades now. Despite being a gamer all my life, I've never actually owned a single Nintendo console. My parents didn't buy me another after they saw how addicted I was to Atari and by the time I was old enough to afford one for myself I always felt there were better options out there (Sega Genesis, 3DO, Sega Dreamcast, Xbox OG, Xbox 360, PS3, Xbox One). I don't like seeing less competition, but Nintendo failed to keep up with Sony and Microsoft IMO.
 
Good article. I hope the NX is cool, but I'm doubting it. I'll still pick whatever is best to play Zelda on.

That being said, I really think going 3rd party is their best bet. I have to imagine if the NX doesn't do well, investors are really going to be pushing hard for this.

I also realize that I'm looking at N through the eyes of a kid growing up with the being 'it.' Hell, problem wouldn't say they were buying a 'console', they'd say where buying a Nintendo. I wonder how the general population (especially the youth), view Nintendo these days.
 
As someone who has been a Pokémon fan for 20 years, why haven't you made a Pokémon RPG?! Everyone has asked for it? And you gave us Pokémon stadium 64!?

Outsource it if you have to! The licence is obviously more profitable than Mario and Zelda, and it's crippled you!