Probably a repeat of the same numbers or pretty damned close. If so, thats just sick. I'll be double dipping again though.
Numbers Discussion Thread
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Yeah, I can go along with that. 5 million seems doable with the install bases and the fresh release on PC.
What, you think it would do nearly 30 million again ? that is just crazy talk.
Well it can't be a repeat of the same numbers since there aren't even 33m PS4+XBO in the world. With there being a PS4 bundle for GTAV; it's pretty obvious it's going to sell more on PS4. I expect like 3-4m on PS4 and like 1-2m on XBO.
I think all the big name games have had mucho hype. Killzone, infamous, titanfall, watchdogs, all got mad hype. However, the 2 that stick out are Titanfall and Watchdogs. The latter has been highly hyped for 2 years, and Titanfall was dubbed the next COD. So much was expected of it in regards to pushing the xbox one, it was hailed as the second coming on forums.
But lets face it, that is just PR and marketing doing a good job.
Seems Sunset Overdrive is the next in line.
That or nearly. GTA is a big title and still rather popular. A GTA title with next Gen visuals should do very well. Hence why I also said nearly? Just look at TR. The definitive version sold ass loads.
I am not saying it will not do well, I think it will do very well, but like Ketto said, there is not enough sold consoles for it to come close to those numbers.
People thought TF would be the next CoD? A new Ip against an already in franchise? Who dat?
I'm thinking over all platforms though. Including PC. Might be wrong though but whateves... Like I said though, I'll be paying a visit day one.
Wait,. there is a GTAV PS4 bundle, & not for X1? SO there is a GTAV & Destiny bundle for PS4, & not for X1? Hmmm.
As a $500 Xbox One buyer I am excited for the possibilites of the cloud but nothing has made worth mentioning use of them thus far besides a stage demo that gives me hope for Crackdown.
Its got legs. Give it time. TF will be a huge title in a couple of years. I think its doing quite well for a new Ip though...
I am not trying to put Titanfall down. I agree it has done well for a new IP on a new console with a rather small consumer base. That was not really the point though. Titanfall wasn't even really the point. The point was hype and how the masses and media over-hype games to the point that the software can not really deliver.
TF is sure to have legs, but not long enough legs to ever propel the game into the likes of CoD and Halo.
The problem with TF, is not so much the game itself, but it's that the game came out at a time that many gamers are starting to getting fatigued with shooters. In the past few years, we've already seen a resurgence in sp/non-shooter games.
Had TF come out just 4 years ago, I would have been in love, but I, like many, am just burned out on shooters.
The problem with TF, is not so much the game itself, but it's that the game came out at a time that many gamers are starting to getting fatigued with shooters. In the past few years, we've already seen a resurgence in sp/non-shooter games.
Had TF come out just 4 years ago, I would have been in love, but I, like many, am just burned out on shooters.
As I said many times before, this is true for the majority of games since the majority of them aren't bundled alongside SKUs. The term "system seller" shouldn't be used then I guess. I mean, if we can't make a pretty solid assumption based on mixing the sales stats of games alongside the sales stats of systems then what's the point?
And again, the majority of the biggest games considered "system sellers" come out during the Holiday season anyway since companies know that the games will help sell consoles.
Titanfall is one of my top 10 games of this year so I really enjoy it but yeah, its impact was cut due to shooter fatigue as you said. I felt the game was fresh (especially when I first played it) but I would have felt that way even more if it released back 4-5 years ago when the gaming genre was booming.
I don't see any attack. And I have still yet to see any proofs or facts that back up any of your claims.
All I'm asking you to do is back up your claims with proof and facts, just like you did on the previous page to others.
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I agree that it's all opinion/perception, but as demonstrated by his post directly above yours though, TDBank doesn't seem to understand. He thinks his predictable and radically biased opinions are facts. And then calls out others to back their stuff up with proof.
I'm just asking for him to back up some of his 'facts'.
And based on E3 awards, marketing budgets, E3 press conference time, cover stories, etc, you actually can roughly determine and compare the level of hype for a game with facts. Typically the games that get have the most cover stories, commercial spots, E3 press conference time, press coverage, and pre-release rewards also have the most 'hype' associated with them.
If he would have said that Killzone was the most hyped game because of how Killzone's marketing campaign, E3 presence, and media coverage compared to games like Titanfall or Watch Dogs, then I would be inclined to agree. But he chooses to instead make ridiculous statements (that he thinks are facts) based on made up fanboy rhetoric that he manufactures in his head. Therefore I called him out and asked him to back his stance up.
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It's more shameful not owning an X1 and Forza, and being a race fantatic. I won't mention any names....
I know I'll be buying it, I traded in my 360 so I don't have access to the game anymore. I'm sure it'll do fairly well and will likely be boosted later when some major DLC is released.
COD is just a huge seller, the only one of the last 5 COD's not to break 10 million in sales on PS3 was Ghosts (still sold over 8 million) and the reason for that was likely just people buying it on PS4 instead.
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I will be getting it too. My 360 drive for 100% was halted at 98% because of a bug stopping the Jet-ski races appearing. I have 100% completed every GTA game to date, and feel compelled to do it with this one.
In regards to the breakdown of the 1.1m sales between XBO and 360 for the Q4, if we go by YOY then we get something like
Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014 = 1.2 / 1.7 = 0.705 -> Q1 2014 is 70.5% of Q1 2013 or there was a ~ 29.5% drop
Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014 = 3.5 / 5.9 = 0.593 -> Q2 2014 is 59.3% of Q2 2013 or there was a ~ 41% drop
Q3 2013 vs Q3 2014 = 0.8 / 1.3 = 0.615 -> Q3 2014 is 61.5% of Q3 2013 or there was a ~ 38.5% drop
Thus average YOY drop is ~ 36.3%
Thus with 1M shipped in Q4 2013, then estimate of 360 shipped in Q4 of 2014 should be 1(1-.363) = .637 -> 637k 360 shipped -> 463k XB1 shipped in Q4 of 2014.
Which sounds about right; I have a few ideas on what MS can do in order to reignite sales. First and foremost is that they need to bite the bullet, get rid of the Kinectless SKU and just drop the price of the Kinect SKU. 1 SKU at a lower price point will do more for consumer awareness than the current two SKU model. MS will also need to start being more aggressive with game bundles. They're doing what Sony did with the PS3 that is they're trying to push their first party games over third party in regards to Bundle deals. Unfortunately this doesn't work for MS because third party games are largely the reason for 360's success. MS needs to push third party titles as the main dish and their first party offerings as that amazing dessert.
IMO, MS had a very solid plan with their initial focus on being the all in one entertainment system; their data from 360 reflected that people spend mroe time consuming media than games, this is unarguable. However MS failed to show 360 gamers why they should sell their 360 (which also is a all in one entertainment device) and plop $500 down to get the Xbox One for largely the same experience they have on 360. Basically they tried to attract those media consumers who ate up the 360 @ $199-299; but forgot to realize the reason why they were eating up the 360 is specifically because of price.
MS misread the market (or read Sony's PS3 playbook); and assumed that the brand is big enough that gamers would by large flock to it over the competition despite the competition's machine being lower priced and offering superior versions of third party support. And yes, MS initial unveil and messaging didn't help at all, neither did the first commercials (NFL 'Xbox on' commercial that showed absolutely no videogames).
It'll be interesting to see how MS turns this around (I'm of the opinion that they very much can, but that window is closing fast).
Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014 = 1.2 / 1.7 = 0.705 -> Q1 2014 is 70.5% of Q1 2013 or there was a ~ 29.5% drop
Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014 = 3.5 / 5.9 = 0.593 -> Q2 2014 is 59.3% of Q2 2013 or there was a ~ 41% drop
Q3 2013 vs Q3 2014 = 0.8 / 1.3 = 0.615 -> Q3 2014 is 61.5% of Q3 2013 or there was a ~ 38.5% drop
Thus average YOY drop is ~ 36.3%
Thus with 1M shipped in Q4 2013, then estimate of 360 shipped in Q4 of 2014 should be 1(1-.363) = .637 -> 637k 360 shipped -> 463k XB1 shipped in Q4 of 2014.
Which sounds about right; I have a few ideas on what MS can do in order to reignite sales. First and foremost is that they need to bite the bullet, get rid of the Kinectless SKU and just drop the price of the Kinect SKU. 1 SKU at a lower price point will do more for consumer awareness than the current two SKU model. MS will also need to start being more aggressive with game bundles. They're doing what Sony did with the PS3 that is they're trying to push their first party games over third party in regards to Bundle deals. Unfortunately this doesn't work for MS because third party games are largely the reason for 360's success. MS needs to push third party titles as the main dish and their first party offerings as that amazing dessert.
IMO, MS had a very solid plan with their initial focus on being the all in one entertainment system; their data from 360 reflected that people spend mroe time consuming media than games, this is unarguable. However MS failed to show 360 gamers why they should sell their 360 (which also is a all in one entertainment device) and plop $500 down to get the Xbox One for largely the same experience they have on 360. Basically they tried to attract those media consumers who ate up the 360 @ $199-299; but forgot to realize the reason why they were eating up the 360 is specifically because of price.
MS misread the market (or read Sony's PS3 playbook); and assumed that the brand is big enough that gamers would by large flock to it over the competition despite the competition's machine being lower priced and offering superior versions of third party support. And yes, MS initial unveil and messaging didn't help at all, neither did the first commercials (NFL 'Xbox on' commercial that showed absolutely no videogames).
It'll be interesting to see how MS turns this around (I'm of the opinion that they very much can, but that window is closing fast).
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