Predictions on the length of this console generation?

Razzel

Razzel

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Sep 12, 2013
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Really seems like this generation will not last long given all the trouble developers have had getting games to run smoothly, hitting graphical targets, and a getting online to work properly.

Anybody getting the impressions these consoles won't last long?
 
The opposite.

At least as long as the previous generation.

Possibly longer.

Except Wii U, which will be succeeded by NX in 2017.
 
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New consoles all around by holidays 2020, possibly earlier.

Stop gap gen imo. Next gen consoles will be fully backwards compatible.

Current gen consoles will just play the same games at lower settings.
 
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I don't think this gen will be as long as last gen. 8th gen consoles as a whole aren't going to reach total gen 7 userbase due to there being more ways to play games now.

So I think we will see the PS5 and/or "Xbox Two" by Christmas 2019.
 
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It won't be a short generation. This is a problem every generation faces. Developers always love to push too far with graphics. It's how we went from 60fps 2D games to 15fps 3D games, and then from 15fps to 30fps. And of course, 60fps will never happen again because reasons.
 
I'm guessing it'll be a while, like 8 years or so. We're nearly 2 years in, and the devs are still coming to grips with the hardware (I'm saying that based on all the 2015 -> 2016 delays). I think we'll be pretty impressed by what they learn to squeeze out of these things, after 5 years or so, and so people won't be clamoring for better and better so much. We're getting a declining return on investment as we move forward in these generations -- each bump in resolution and whatnot is a little less impressive than the last. Plus, I don't think anyone's going to be in a rush to push the budgets even higher still. So, I don't see any rush into the next gen. I think it'll be a while.

Sony, at any rate, will not be in any rush. I suppose MS could try to get an early start, like they did with the 360. That strategy was very successful for them.

I'm not even counting Nintendo. They kind of just do their own thing. I don't even know what generation they are in anymore.
 
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I'm hoping for 6-7 years MAX.

Also, hoping the consoles that supersede this gen are completely backwards compatible.
 
Launches

PS2/XB/GC = 2001-2002

4-5 year gap

360/PS3/Wii = 2005-2006

6-8 year gap

WiiU/X1/PS4 = 2012-2013

5-7 year gap is my prediction

Next gen = 2017 Nintendo, 2020 MS/Sony. 5 year gap for Nintendo, 7 years for MS/Sony.

It's 2015. Nintendo's Wii U is toast. They'll release one last set of first party key games and be done with it. Maybe they won't even release another console.

For MS/Sony, many key games aren't even out till 2016.... Gears, QB, UC, whenever the next GoW/GT release. No doubt they'll then release a sequel or two which will be 2018 and then another in 2020. At that time, most key MS/Sony series should have 3 games under their belt assuming a game every other year. They'll release a new console around that time.

X1/PS4 will still get support for years to come just like now how 360/PS3 games still churn out.
 
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Razzel said:
Really seems like this generation will not last long given all the trouble developers have had getting games to run smoothly, hitting graphical targets, and a getting online to work properly.

Anybody getting the impressions these consoles won't last long?
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Going by that i'd say this gen lasts longer than last gen. If developers are having trouble now it's only a matter of time before they figure it out. Sony and Microsoft will want to squeeze every ounce of money they can get out of this gen. I'll say it lasts 7-8 years though.
 
5 more -- 2020 will be new consoles. And they'll probably be based off of what's current now for the PC. Next gen will offer 4k @ 30fps games or 1080p@60fps.
 
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Another 5 years at least. You want to upgrade more often? PC gaming is for you.
 
I hope the 4-5 year estimates are correct. Last gen you got the sense that they were constantly trying to figure out how to exploit the consoles and utilize the multi core processors, but this gen it feels more like they are hitting the wall already. Developers constantly scaling back graphics and features.

This year will really tell the story though IMO. After 2 years with the 360 I remember being shocked that games like Gears of War and Assassins Creed could run so well on consoles, so I'm hoping some of the fall releases give the same kind of feeling.

Looking at the graphical downgrades so far this gen with Watch Dogs and others I'm more often thinking this is all they could do??
 
I'll say 7-8 years. I liked not having to buy a new machine for so long, but the PS360 was really showing it's age by the end. Except in the case of The Last of Us, which was a stunning achievement.
 
Whenever it happens I really hope it isn't all sbout native 4k. Otherwise we'll just be pis***g all that power away on pushing higher resolutions and end up with games that look graphically similar to what we have today. Keep the games native 1080p and use the power to push for better visuals than a higher res.
That way most games should be able to run 1080p/60fps with stonking graphics.
If MS can deliver on their promise of increasing the power of Xbox through the cloud, then who knows how long this gen could last.
I know to some of you guys the Cloud is a load of baloney but MS obviously still believe in it. They recently demoed a VR hmd powered by the using cloud based GPU's instead of CPU's and was supposed to be ultra low latency.

http://www.neowin.net/news/irides-microsofts-project-to-create-a-better-virtual-reality-headset
 
VFX_Veteran said:
5 more -- 2020 will be new consoles. And they'll probably be based off of what's current now for the PC. Next gen will offer 4k @ 30fps games or 1080p@60fps.
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Honestly, that would be great, lol. Can you imagine what they'd get out of a 960 GTX if they could push the thing to it's limits for a few years?
 
I seriously hope we have new consoles before 2020. This gen has been so horrible so far imo. I wish it never happened, please end it quickly.
 
As much as I hope it's a 5 year gen I think we'll see at least 6 or 7 years.
 
Hissatsu said:
I seriously hope we have new consoles before 2020. This gen has been so horrible so far imo. I wish it never happened, please end it quickly.
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Weird. Personally, I think it is the best gen so far (less the Wii U....though I have never played one).
 
About 7.5" on a good day... I mean...

I'm happy for 7 years. If they can focus on more innovative gameplay instead of obsessing about graphics would be fine by me.
 
The Wolf King said:
You want to upgrade more often? PC gaming is for you.
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No thanks. Every gen should last 6-7 years at minimum. Wanting new hardware 2 years after a gen starts is stupid and pointless. If your attention span is that bad, maybe chasing nuts with the squirrels would be a better hobby for you. Screw it, i'll go back to the NES if i have to. A good game is a good game. If it plays, it stays. Gameplay over graphics any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
 
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VaLLiancE said:
Depends on how long the PS4 continues to sell at its record breaking rate.
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I think there's more truth to this than anything else. This generation's length won't be determined by how soon the console becomes obsolete, truth is, the consoles came out already gimped in power, and they know it. It's life cycle, will pretty much be determined by how well it continues to sell (both PS4 and XB1). If these consoles continue to sell like hotcakes, then why invest so much time, money and effort on a new console?

So yeah, like Val said, it all depends on how well it continues to sell. That could be 10 years, that could be 6 years.
 
I don't think there is a big push from the general gaming community to rush for more performance. Honestly I don't think many gamers really care about resolution or fps. Obviously a tiny sample size but I get asked by kids of people I work with my opinion on games, and they never really ask about either of these things. Who knows if this goes for a large number of people, but it seems that these underpowered systems are selling very well.
 
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