The Covid-19/Coronavirus thread. Now with more monkeypox.

JinCA

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It seems like the government response monkeypox was a bit slow and they could have done more sooner. It also doesn't help that some people are wasting time trying to spare people's feelings instead of just getting the info out there. There is nothing wrong with pointing out that the people at the highest risk right now are gay/bi men, that doesn't make it a gay disease and it didn't originate with gay people, it has been around for many years it's just "new" to the west. I've seen complaints about how it stigmatizes gay people or even black people, it's nonsense. The only thing that should be talked about is how high-risk people need to try to get vaccinated as soon as there are vaccines available to them and until then making sure they avoid activities that put them at risk of catching it.
 
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Rollins

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Why is pandemics suddenly happening one after the other?
There is a theoretical explanation for this, and why it could all get much, much worse in the next year. IF the theory is correct, monkeypox would only be the beginning. Luckily MP is almost always non-fatal, and we have effective drugs to treat it.

But MP could be the first indication of a much bigger potential problem.

I said a year ago I wouldn't comment on this thread anymore, but I'd be glad to go into some details on this theory if you'd like. If, and again that's a big if, it turns out to be correct, it's better everyone knows about it and can better prepare for it.
 

Plainview

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There is a theoretical explanation for this, and why it could all get much, much worse in the next year. IF the theory is correct, monkeypox would only be the beginning. Luckily MP is almost always non-fatal, and we have effective drugs to treat it.

But MP could be the first indication of a much bigger potential problem.

I said a year ago I wouldn't comment on this thread anymore, but I'd be glad to go into some details on this theory if you'd like. If, and again that's a big if, it turns out to be correct, it's better everyone knows about it and can better prepare for it.
sassy d&d GIF by Hyper RPG
 

Plainview

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There is a theoretical explanation for this, and why it could all get much, much worse in the next year. IF the theory is correct, monkeypox would only be the beginning. Luckily MP is almost always non-fatal, and we have effective drugs to treat it.

But MP could be the first indication of a much bigger potential problem.

I said a year ago I wouldn't comment on this thread anymore, but I'd be glad to go into some details on this theory if you'd like. If, and again that's a big if, it turns out to be correct, it's better everyone knows about it and can better prepare for it.
Was joking, but share your thoughts. It’ll open up dialogue.
 

DarkPassenger

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There is a theoretical explanation for this, and why it could all get much, much worse in the next year. IF the theory is correct, monkeypox would only be the beginning. Luckily MP is almost always non-fatal, and we have effective drugs to treat it.

But MP could be the first indication of a much bigger potential problem.

I said a year ago I wouldn't comment on this thread anymore, but I'd be glad to go into some details on this theory if you'd like. If, and again that's a big if, it turns out to be correct, it's better everyone knows about it and can better prepare for it.
You have me intrigued. I'd like to know the details on this theory.
 

Enemy

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There is a theoretical explanation for this, and why it could all get much, much worse in the next year. IF the theory is correct, monkeypox would only be the beginning. Luckily MP is almost always non-fatal, and we have effective drugs to treat it.

But MP could be the first indication of a much bigger potential problem.

I said a year ago I wouldn't comment on this thread anymore, but I'd be glad to go into some details on this theory if you'd like. If, and again that's a big if, it turns out to be correct, it's better everyone knows about it and can better prepare for it.

lets-hear-it-erica-campbell.gif


Do you think I need to start hoarding toilet paper again?
 
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Rollins

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Was joking, but share your thoughts. It’ll open up dialogue.
Thank you for the tone, I'm hoping to continue that for the duration of this conversation. I also have plenty of studies to back this up, and I'd be happy to provide links, but for now I'm just going to post a few screen shots to keep this easier as I'm writing most of this on my phone.

This will probably be a long post, so I will do a quick summary at the end for those that don't want to read all of this.

Again, please keep in mind what I'm going to attempt to explain isn't fully showing up out there just yet. But Covid and our immune systems are constantly shifting around each other, so I'm also going to include what appears to be happening now, as well as educated speculation/warning on what could potentially be coming.

I will assume no one has significant medical/anatomy background so I'm going to simplify this as much as possible also.

This discussion will mainly revolve around the concept of what used to be called 'original antigenic sin' but now is usually known as 'immune imprinting.' England is already concerned about it:

image4.jpeg


The quick version is that your immune is designed as being non-specific, with low initial affinity (attraction) to invaders like viruses. It encounters these things, attaches to them, learns to how to defeat them, and then retains memory cells of how that was accomplished. This is how old school vaccines work too. They generally give dead viruses and let the immune system figure out how to fight them off that way, so it retains a memory, and can fight the same virus/bacteria off in the future more easily. Genius idea, really.

But they've never been able to get this quite right for coronaviruses and others. There is a flu shot every year, but you've never heard of a common cold shot, right? It would be a billion dollar idea but they've never really perfected it (btw, the common cold is a type of coronavirus itself). The viruses mutate quickly, and they've never been able to produce something that is 100% airtight, preventing transmission and infection.

So Covid comes along, and is very aggressive. We need something to fight it. The mRNA tech isn't a true vaccine, because it produces it's effect by inserting itself into the host's cells, forcing the body to produce antibodies to the spike proteins found on the surface of Covid. And although it's not airtight, it is actually a pretty brilliant idea, because it did initially result in high levels of covid specific, neutralizing antibodies, so the body gets prepped to fight covid before it encounters it. And it worked, for the most part. I'm sure it has saved many lives, and as it stands right now, it is still providing some protection against severe disease. Initially, the specific antibodies it produced did neutralize the OG Wuhan strain it was designed for quite well.

But now what has happened is that covid has mutated quite aggressively. There are quite a few studies showing that this may in fact but due to the immense immune pressure placed on it by worldwide vaccination. Viruses are like any living thing, they will always try to survive and multiply. Never in human history has a vaccine of any kind been given worldwide DURING a pandemic, and while it saved lives, it seems to have forced faster mutations as the virus tries harder to get around the protection it provides:

image2.jpeg
image1.jpeg

So here's where OG antigenic sin comes. The vaccine is designed with the original Wuhan strain of covid. The Wuhan strain has been extinct since June of last year. Delta and Omicron share some similarities, but as we see more and more mutations, the vaccine becomes less and less effective, because every time your body comes in contact with ANY strain of covid, it will release Wuhan antibodies, because that is what it has been taught to do.

So now they no longer neutralize infection, due to mutation, so we now call them 'non-neutralizing antibodies' The more shots a person has had, the more the body has been forced/trained to produce Wuhan-specific antibodies ANYTIME it is exposed to any type of COVID.

Now the good news is that these antibodies are currently still preventing severe disease, because they still somehow prevent the virus from penetrating deep into the lung. This one reason why Omicron and it's variants have mostly manifested in the upper respiratory (sinus) area, and haven't been as deadly.

But the downside is that these vaccine-produced, non-neutralizing antibodies (ABs) have a very high affinity (attraction) for covid and apparently for other glycosilated viruses (like Epstein Barr, monkeypox, varicella, etc). This means they will out-compete your body's innate immunity, and always attach to these viruses before your body's own natural antibodies can. But they can't neutralize these viruses because they are Wuhan-covid specific. And what they finding now is that when these non-neutralizing ABs attach to these viruses, they make them far more infectious. This is one reason why Omicron and its variants are so much more infectious than Delta or the Wuhan strain were.

So mass vaccination has provided protection against the Wuhan strain, and saved lives, and continues to provide some protection against severe diesase, but it has also forced faster mutation by putting immense global immune pressure on covid, and has thus far greatly increased infectivity, which is why the most highly vaccinated countries keep getting wave after wave, while this isn't happening to poorer countries with low vax rates.

'Original antigenic sin' simply means forcing the body over and over to produce ABs to the OG Wuhan strain, and eventually messes with it's ability to function correctly,. And as the virus tries to keep itself alive, it mutates faster, so naturally it wants to become more infectious.

image3 (1).jpeg

If you are barely following at this point, here's a simple American football analogy. Let's say your natural immune system is playing defense. The offense is covid, and all of it's current variants are the offensive players. Now pre-vaccination, most people's immune function can eventually adapt and learn to defend against the pass, the run, and whatever offense comes its way, unless the body is already weakened (I'm generalizing here, as we know the OG covid took out quite a few healthy people pre-vax). But once vaxxed, and especially boosted, the defense can only defend against one running play. It defends against that play quite well, but once any other play (variant) comes along, it has less and less chance of being effective, because it will just keep defending against the one play it's been forced to practice over and over. Not only that, but the players are super strong, and will crowd out any attempt of the body's innate immune system ABs to try and help. In other words, the vax ABs have much higher affinity for these viruses than your natural ones do.

The other thing that is currently happening is that T-cells in the immune system are still able to rush in and support the battle. They can still help clear Covid in the vaxxed and boosted, which is another reason why most cases are currently mild. This is good news as well. But the problem is between the now non-neutralizing ABs, which are currently still preventing severe disease but increasing infectivity due to their non-neutralizing nature, and the heavy dependence on T-cells to help fight covid off, the immune systems of people are becoming depleted.

This is the biggest concern going into the Fall, and why clinically we are seeing things like shingles, Epstein-Barr, herpes viruses, and even some cancers just blow up. The immune system keeps these things in check more than we realize, and when it's tapped out, they flourish. This is my concern about MP. It's been around for years, and people have been having sex forever, so why would it all of a sudden be flourishing? The only explanation seems to be weakened immune function on a large scale.

image0.jpeg

Congrats if you made it this far. Here's the summary (and this post took me 2 hours to write, so I won't have much time to respond for a day or 2 if anyone wants to discuss further):

SUMMARY

-The neutralizing capacity of the vaccine-induced antibodies is gone, because the vax antibodies are Wuhan specific, and the OG Wuhan strain has been extinct since last June/July. They are now referred to as 'non-neutralizing antibodies.' They still have a high attraction (more than your body's own antibodies) for covid and other glycosylated viruses, but they can't neutralize those viruses because they are Wuhan-covid specific, kind of like a key that you can jam into a lock, but it won't work because it's not exactly right. The body has been trained to react only one way by repeated introduction of vaccines, and therefore loses its ability to some degree to fight other variants and possibly other viruses. This is known as 'original antigenic sin' or 'immune imprinting.'

-The good news is the vaccines saved a lot of people, especially when Wuhan was around. And it continues to prevent severe disease progression by preventing covid from going deep into the lung. This is one reason why the more recent strains aren't nearly as deadly, and are affecting mostly the upper respiratory area.

-However, while it still decreases virulence and therefore severe disease, the current non-neutralizing nature of these vax-produced antibodies are enhancing infectivity (this is also another reason why re-infection in highly vaxxed populations is increasing). This is allowing covid to bypass any attempt at your body's innate immunity to tackle it. But if you've been exposed to covid prior to getting vaxxed, your body at least has a better chance because it most likely learned how to fight it to some degree, and will retain a memory of that.

-T-cells are your second line of defense, and luckily at this point, they can still help clear covid in anyone. This is another reason why death rates have been low. But T-cells handle many different things, and when most of them have to be sent to the front lines to battle one specific thing over long periods of time, other viruses and things normally held in check by the innate immune system can start growing more rapidly.

-Because of antigenic sin, we don't know how long the body will continue to react with Wuhan, non-neutralizing antibodies. It may be short-lived, or it may be for life. So whenever a person comes into contact with ANY form of covid in the future, or possibly any glycosylated viruses, the immune system will react by producing Wuhan antibodies only, which may prevent and/or inhibit a normal immune reaction. So it will be like getting repeated boosters, over and over.

-T-cells can help pick up the slack, but this leaves the immune function as a whole in a weakened state. So this current outbreak of MP could be the first sign of a potentially much bigger problems as we go into flu season. Keep an eye on how bad the flu is this year. And with the immense immune pressure forcing mutation, the next thing we may see is a far more aggressive form of covid still yet to come. Again, this is simply because covid is just trying to keep itself alive. So first it becomes more infectious, then it may become more aggressive. If hospitalizations start to jump in the next few months, you'll know that's what is happening.

Again, none of this is set in stone. I'm just giving a heads up to everyone because I am clinically seeing some cancers, epstein-barr, and shingles specifically more and more in younger, healthy people over that last few months, all potential signs of weakened immune function. Could be coincidental of course, but if you are hell bent on further boosters, PLEASE consider waiting another month or so until they have the updated ones out.
 
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Videodrome

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Aight.

Are the old anti-bodies now acting as anti-anti-bodies basically?


My rough understanding is the Immune System can also try to evolve it's response anticipating this issue and isn't limited to building a response to the current version. I can imagine this might vary a lot in the population though with varying degrees of success and generating varied responses to anticipated mutations.

 

Kerosene31

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That's why boosters exist. It is well known that the current booster isn't great at stopping Omicron, just keeping people from getting really sick (which is why cases are high but hospitalizations and deaths are low). That's why they are waiting to give the booster to anyone under 50. We may as well wait for a better Omicron booster that will actually do more good.

The problem is covid has completely gotten knocked off the news, so they can show pictures of horrible monkeypox sores. It is good to try and get awareness out on that, but covid is still the thing spreading all over.

Monkeypox basically only spreads through prolonged, direct physical contact. Most of us video gamers don't need to worry about that at all. ;)

I had to dig for this info, only because I'm 48 and it seems like they opened up the 3rd booster to over 50 and people with vulnerabilities forever ago and seemed to just stop. This is why. Another copy of the old booster isn't going to do much for those under 50. We're better off getting an omicron booster in the fall and stopping what might be another massive wave.
 

Kerosene31

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I got covid last month, most likely from work. Nobody wears a mask and I stopped and I wish I hadn't. I didn't get seriously ill, but still I was exhausted for 5 days and missed 2 days of work (and a whole weekend of doing anything). I still felt tired for a good week after. So, even a "minor" case is still a major pain.
Get the new booster that fights omicron asap. I can't get it now for months :(

This thing is still very much out there, even if it isn't filling up hospitals. I've done nothing other than go to work and the gym. No movies, concerts, not even dinner. I still got it from a guy who sits 10 feet away.
 
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Viktor

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It was pretty crazy the first week or two at the school I work at. I had real basic cold symptoms over the weekend a couple weeks back but then got better outside of lingering froggy throat I guess you could call it. Took a test but was negative, but not really sure how accurate the take home tests are especially with newest variants. Either way outside of like one day of feeling like garbage I was fine.
 

Videodrome

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It was pretty crazy the first week or two at the school I work at. I had real basic cold symptoms over the weekend a couple weeks back but then got better outside of lingering froggy throat I guess you could call it. Took a test but was negative, but not really sure how accurate the take home tests are especially with newest variants. Either way outside of like one day of feeling like garbage I was fine.

When I had symptoms, I used the free drive thru test kit from CVS or Walgreens where a swab sample is mailed to a lab. I figured that was more accurate.

I never got super sick, just congested, sore throat, and headache. Temp only got to 99.
 

Kerosene31

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I think the home tests are pretty bad. If they show you positive, you probably have it, but a negative result doesn't mean much.

My wife suddenly had all the exact same symptoms as a month ago. She kept testing but was negative all but once. We don't know if she got it back or just never shook it. She went to the doctor but tested negative. She got over it quicker but still scary.

We're around kids and older people a ton and fortunately nobody got it.
 

Viktor

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For me I got the scratchy throat which is normal to start a cold, then just sniffles for like a day. I guess if I actually had Covid and that was the worst of my symptoms I'll consider myself lucky.