The Economy Thread...

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I am a sinner.
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Videodrome suggested a separate thread from the politics thread to discuss it. So, here it is. A downturn is coming. It's already started. Manufacturing is contracting. The tariffs are working as expected by everyone but idiots and sycophants. Student loans are piling up. Real estate purchases are slowing fast. There are numerous recession indicators. There are no bullets left in the FED to stave off a recession. Tax income is dismal thanks to the tax break the rich got. The FED has poured in nearly the same amount of money for the bailout in the second great depression in 2008, IN UNDER A MONTH! They may have eclipsed it already. People are underemployed. People are working two jobs to make ends meet. Wages are stagnant.

TL;DR It's not looking good.
 

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I am a sinner.
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Income inequality in America is the highest it’s been since Census Bureau started tracking it, data shows

Income inequality in the United States has hit its highest level since the Census Bureau started tracking it more than five decades ago, according to data released Thursday, even as the nation’s poverty and unemployment rates are at historic lows.

The gulf is starkest in wealthy regions along both coasts such as New York, Connecticut, California and Washington, D.C., as well as in areas with widespread poverty, such as Puerto Rico and Louisiana. Equality was highest in Utah, Alaska and Iowa.
 

Kerosene31

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An important thing to remember is that certain political forces out there love to talk about the low unemployment rate, hoping that you don't dig deeper and see all the problems like income inequality and a massive debt build up. There's a lot more to the economy than just having a job.

A shrinking middle class is a shrinking economy. Plain and simple.
 
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Videodrome

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An important thing to remember is that certain political forces out there love to talk about the low unemployment rate, hoping that you don't dig deeper and see all the problems like income inequality and a massive debt build up. There's a lot more to the economy than just having a job.

A shrinking middle class is a shrinking economy. Plain and simple.
I follow a local jobs board on Facebook and people are pleading for $10 an hour jobs. It's a mess.

I also still see the occassional beggar or people asking for money at truck stops.

Others are in the weird Gig Economy.
 

Videodrome

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Videodrome suggested a separate thread from the politics thread to discuss it. So, here it is. A downturn is coming.
I guess I'm wondering if there are strategic moves or plans people can do. Or is it bad enough to avoid some things.

I'm making decent income finally though I think I work crazy hours to get it. I'm not currently invested in the market, but wondered if I should sign up with an online stock trading service. My rough idea is whether to be prepared for a big dip and if it comes start buying dividend stocks or putting some money into an Index Fund like S&P or Vanguard? I think I could handle putting in 5000.

This of course assumes a recovery comes that a buyer could ride upward in value by buying in during the crash?

Another part of my weird job situation is I currently don't have property or rent. I drive around for about 12 days and crash at my parents place. We've kind of agreed that paying for an apartment or house that sits vacant most of the time while I drive is kind of a waste of money.

I also hear of people putting their wealth into precious metals, but that sounds really speculative to me. I think this is a bunch of weird Goldbug stuff pushed by people like Peter Schiff.

What I just posted makes a big assumption this will be a stock market tumble and not something else like a currency crisis.
 

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I am a sinner.
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I guess I'm wondering if there are strategic moves or plans people can do. Or is it bad enough to avoid some things.

I'm making decent income finally though I think I work crazy hours to get it. I'm not currently invested in the market, but wondered if I should sign up with an online stock trading service. My rough idea is whether to be prepared for a big dip and if it comes start buying dividend stocks or putting some money into an Index Fund like S&P or Vanguard? I think I could handle putting in 5000.

This of course assumes a recovery comes that a buyer could ride upward in value by buying in during the crash?

Another part of my weird job situation is I currently don't have property or rent. I drive around for about 12 days and crash at my parents place. We've kind of agreed that paying for an apartment or house that sits vacant most of the time while I drive is kind of a waste of money.

I also hear of people putting their wealth into precious metals, but that sounds really speculative to me. I think this is a bunch of weird Goldbug stuff pushed by people like Peter Schiff.

What I just posted makes a big assumption this will be a stock market tumble and not something else like a currency crisis.
The market is very violent right now. Dipping your toe in is tough when you don‘t have experience. I’ve been day trading the past two years. This year I’m up 18%. I haven’t traded since about May. The market became scary. I had stocks in mind to buy during the time, stupidly I didn’t and missed out on another very easy $10k. This is all done with a lot of research the day, or week leading up to it.

To “day trade” you need $30k in a trading account. It’s actually $25k, but if your portfolio drops below $25k, you’re trading frequency is very restricted. I stick mainly to AAA stocks like Amazon, Apple, Tesla (my biggest winner this year and also the one I should have bought at $185 but didn’t like an idiot), and some smaller stock like GE, Fit Bit, JcPenny (that was a risky one but paid off). I don’t make many gambles at all. I’m quite content making $100 if that’s what the trade calls for. The key is always getting out ’too early.’ But, this is all about day trading which isn’t going to be really possible with $5k. In that case, I’d wait to invest and put your cash into a high rate savings account and leave it there until the downturn. I use Barclays and sometimes American Express depending on who has the best rates. I don’t do CDs or anything because if I need cash I want it then an there.

The economy is frightening right now as well as the markets. I mentioned last week my buddy who’s responsible for over $500m said ’it’s f***ed.’ It May be a little downturn. It make be a massive one. I think it will be in between. I’m waiting and seeing when I can enter the market again. I’m getting the itch. It’s too bad that I’ve been busy at work to focus on it. Lol
 
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Videodrome

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Well, I just listen to the audio portion of YouTube opinions about investing. I've never had a strong position in the market at all, but now I might be able to put some money in at some point.

I was thinking when I did I'll buy to hold and not sell. That if the market take a hard tumble, I'd buy into things like Proctor & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, 3M, or put some money into S&P. My intention would be to invest in what are normally stable companies that would steadily recover long term and maybe even rollover the dividends to grow them more.

I don't think I can ever come at the market like a day trader; I don't have the time for that level of market scrutiny.
With that said, I'm just a guy trying to figure things on YouTube some I'm not sure if what I'm saying sounds reasonable or like a pipedream outcome.

This all assumes it's about stocks or real estate and not something even worse if that's possible.
 

Videodrome

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Some observations and a grim assessment of reckless financial behavior in the west. Seems to think the East is more stable. Might it be wise to invest in China?


 

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I am a sinner.
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Some observations and a grim assessment of reckless financial behavior in the west. Seems to think the East is more stable. Might it be wise to invest in China?


One thing I agree with the orange turd on is China is a currency manipulator. Their GDP is a major fabrication. They keep building buildings that are unoccupied to keep their GDP propped up.
 

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U.S. employers added fewer jobs than expected in September, in another sign of slowing growth in the domestic economy. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to a fresh five-decade low of 3.5%.

Here were the main numbers from the Department of Labor’s September jobs report, versus consensus expectations compiled by Bloomberg:

  • Nonfarm payrolls: 136,000 vs. +145,000 expected and +168,000 in August
  • Unemployment rate: 3.5% vs. 3.7% expected and 3.7% in August
  • Average hourly earnings MoM: +0.00% vs. +0.2% expected and +0.4% in August
  • Average hourly earnings YoY: +2.9% vs. +3.2% expected and +3.2% in August
Friday’s jobs report also saw August’s payroll additions revised up to 168,000, from the 130,000 previously reported. This brought the new three-month average for payroll additions between July, August and September to 119,000, or the lowest since 2012.
 

Videodrome

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Freightliner is the brand of semitruck I drive. There have apparently been wide swings in freight volume and I also think some companies over purchased trucks expecting an increase of freight that isn't happening. Also, the rate cost of shipping freight has been low for some reason. So, all this now trickles down into the truck manufacturer like Daimler here facing a slow down.

Makes me glad I no longer haul auto parts.


Daimler to lay off 900 workers at Freightliner plants
A huge layoff is coming heading into the holiday season.

https://cdllife.com/2019/daimler-to-lay-off-900-workers-at-freightliner-plants/?fbclid=IwAR0Njfu3ytMkp64c8BIlJDI3VH3fn8z98a505B6k-YprdXG29D3cdxyHEoE

Daimler Trucks North America will be laying off hundreds of workers at two North Carolina Freightliner plants within the next month.

The layoffs will take place on October 14 at the Freightliner productions facilities in Mount Holly, North Carolina and Cleveland, North Carolina.

Approximately 450 workers will be laid off from each of the two plants.

Daimler Trucks North America provided WBTV with a statement explaining their decision to lay off 900 of their workers:

Following a red-hot North American truck market of record sales and production volumes over the last twelve months, the market is now clearly returning to normal market levels. Daimler Trucks North America (DTNA) will have to adjust its production output in line with lower market demand and release approximately 450 production workers at its Cleveland manufacturing plant based in Cleveland, North Carolina and approximately 450 workers in Mt. Holly, North Carolina effective October 14, 2019.

This levelling-off in the market requires us to adjust our production levels to meet the normalized demand and therefore reduce our current build rates and employment levels at these locations. We have already witnessed some of our industry competitors making changes in their production plans and employment levels to accommodate. DTNA has been a committed member of these communities and is the leading manufacturer of trucks in North America.


Prior to the layoffs, the Cleveland plant employs 2878 workers. The North Holly plant employs 1,714 workers.
 
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Nearly 600 jobs lost as Stevens Tanker Division closes down for good


https://cdllife.com/2019/nearly-600-jobs-lost-as-texas-trucking-company-suddenly-closes-down-for-good/


A Dallas, Texas-based trucking company will be laying off hundreds of workers as they permanently cease operations in their tanker division.

Stevens Tanker Division, which is part of Stevens Transport, will permanently cease all business operations on or before October 15, according to documents submitted to the Texas Workforce Commission. All of the division’s employees are being laid off permanently.

The layoffs will impact 586 employees across the state of Texas. The largest job loss is at the Stockdale location, where 376 are employed. Seventy-one workers are being laid off at the Dallas headquarters. Dozens of workers at the Pleasanton, Bryan, Bridgeport, Cresson, Dilley, Waelder, and Asherton sites are also impacted by the layoffs.
 

JinCA

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I follow a local jobs board on Facebook and people are pleading for $10 an hour jobs. It's a mess.

I also still see the occassional beggar or people asking for money at truck stops.

Others are in the weird Gig Economy.
I've seen far more homeless people here in So Cal as well as people begging for change than I ever have in my life and it's been that way for the last couple of years. I won't blame it all on Trump, Obama had a lot to do with this as well. I don't think we ever truly recovered completely from the last crash, yeah they were able to target areas to make the reports look better but most of that only applies to the wealthy, the vast majority of people I know still can't get ahead.

Anyone else think a lot of these "new jobs" created in the past few years are things like delivery jobs? with all of the new delivery services, ride sharing and amazon delivering more and more on their own instead of using UPS and Fed Ex it just seems like there are delivery cars everywhere these days.
 

Kerosene31

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I've seen far more homeless people here in So Cal as well as people begging for change than I ever have in my life and it's been that way for the last couple of years. I won't blame it all on Trump, Obama had a lot to do with this as well. I don't think we ever truly recovered completely from the last crash, yeah they were able to target areas to make the reports look better but most of that only applies to the wealthy, the vast majority of people I know still can't get ahead.

Anyone else think a lot of these "new jobs" created in the past few years are things like delivery jobs? with all of the new delivery services, ride sharing and amazon delivering more and more on their own instead of using UPS and Fed Ex it just seems like there are delivery cars everywhere these days.
I'm seeing a ton more in Buffalo of all places. We simply rarely have them here due to the super low cost of living and the obvious weather issues (sadly we had a homeless guy freeze to death last winter). Lately I've seem homeless people begging outside of major shopping centers which is pretty unusual. All anecdotal of course, but it really stands out because the last time I saw more than a handful was 2008...

You're exactly right about the new jobs. Amazon now gets us our stuff in 1-2 days, with places like Walmart following. That created a ton of "jobs" but not exactly great careers. The Republicans love to talk about the stock market, but the average wage has just barely started to climb in the past year or two. At my place, we were in a zero raise mode until 3 years ago, and now we're just getting enough of a raise to match inflation. That means my real income has gone down. And I was one of the lucky ones to keep a job all through the last recession.

The rich recover from the recession a lot faster than us. They can just cut costs and maybe even get a bailout from the gov't. We're still struggling to increase wages. Plus you have to factor in things like the cost of healthcare.
 
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It's hard to tell what this will mean in the economy, but Amazon is now in the process of starting it's own Truck Fleet. You may have casually observed Amazon Prime trailers being pulled down the interstate, but the trucks pulling those have been contractors or carriers such as Schneider, Werner, or Swift.

At this Kenworth plant, a large amount of Day Cab trucks are sitting with the Amazon brand. Since these are Day Cabs they will probably be short haul going between warehouses. It will mean whatever they do is business lost to other trucking companies as well as a sign of further expansion.

It will be interesting to see how this goes compared with Walmart who has their own fleet of sleeper cab trucks, but does sometimes use other carriers like U. S. Express Day Cabs especially for refrigerated freight.

The weirdest part for me personally is I'll wonder about driving for them myself. There is a Fullfillment center near where I live. I do not like the idea of working inside a warehouse, but maybe I could drive for them if they don't decide to have lowball wages for their truckers.




 
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