Revisiting the Xbox One Reveal

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ZombiesRUCrazy said:
I would say it was more lessons misunderstood from the previous gen than lessons learned. The lessoned learned came after the backlash.
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I dont agree with that. You dont go through an entire generation and not come away with some idea of what direction to push towards in the next. Again though, not so many were willing to follow. Either that, or like Yankee said; "it just wasnt the right time."

Still, you gotta think though; that was a lot to throw on the hardcore crowd on top of gaming. Maybe some people were just overwhelmed and started crying. No one was around to give them a hug, or tell them everything was going to be okay.

HARDCORE GAMER: "Wait, wha!? TV? Kinect? Always online? DRM? And games?....they....they changed everything. This....this is too much. I need a hug!

MOM: "Billy! Getcho lil' emotional ass up here and finish these dishes, boy!"

HARDCORE GAMER: "Bu...bu...but MOM!! The DRM's!"

MOM: "Ain't no body got time for dat!"
 
Bgamer90 said:
MS did do a lot of research, it's just that the research they did was based largely on the last years of the Xbox 360 and the way that people were using the console at the time instead of the first years of the system; Somewhat understandable considering the fact that the Xbox 360 did MUCH better after 2008 (up to late 2012 or so) than it did before that period.

Either way, they should have known that people who buy consoles shortly after they launch are the "hardcoriest" of the hardcore gamers.
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When I mentioned "lack of research," I also meant regarding their proposed policies (re. used games, always online, mandatory Kinect, etc.), not just the TV/TV/sports thing. It was very clear that, in those instances, MS had not bothered to inquire what gamers thought. They found out the hard way.

With regard to the TV/TV/sports thing, too, it was clear that their research amounted only to staring at their own data and making assumptions based on it, without checking those assumptions out with the intended audience. For example, "People use their 360s to watch a lot of Netflix" (data) became "People buy a console primarily based on its TV/cable functionality" (huge assumption, especially when you're marketing a $500 device in a time when everything from a mobile phone to a toaster runs basic TV/cable apps). It's not bad to make assumptions; everyone does it. But you've got to check them out. Again, they learned the hard way.

Well, at least they learned. I hope! I admit a part of me is still suspicious that in the planning meetings, some guy in a $2000 suit is saying, "The time wasn't right in 2013, we were ahead of the curve, but in 2020...." But no, I doubt it. I think that one advantage of these kind of public, costly mistakes (like Sony had with the PS3) is that the company learns does not repeat them.
 
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The Wolf King said:
Leaks had been coming out for about a year about always online/Kinect/No used games so they should have seen the backlash those reports got.
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That's a good point. They actually were getting feedback (assuming they were paying attention). They just chose to ignore it and push ahead anyway. Woops.
 
Andy said:
When I mentioned "lack of research," I also meant regarding their proposed policies (re. used games, always online, mandatory Kinect, etc.), not just the TV/TV/sports thing. It was very clear that, in those instances, MS had not bothered to inquire what gamers thought. They found out the hard way.

With regard to the TV/TV/sports thing, too, it was clear that their research amounted only to staring at their own data and making assumptions based on it, without checking those assumptions out with the intended audience. For example, "People use their 360s to watch a lot of Netflix" (data) became "People buy a console primarily based on its TV/cable functionality" (huge assumption, especially when you're marketing a $500 device in a time when everything from a mobile phone to a toaster runs basic TV/cable apps). It's not bad to make assumptions; everyone does it. But you've got to check them out. Again, they learned the hard way.

Well, at least they learned. I hope! I admit a part of me is still suspicious that in the planning meetings, some guy in a $2000 suit is saying, "The time wasn't right in 2013, we were ahead of the curve, but in 2020...." But no, I doubt it. I think that one advantage of these kind of public, costly mistakes (like Sony had with the PS3) is that the company learns does not repeat them.
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But in many ways they were correct in their thinking. People do watch a lot of Netflix and a lot of sports, and so on. Granted games should have been the focal point upon the initial reveal, but they were right. In fact, a lot of what they began with were the right choices. Perhaps not the right time, but certainly the way to go. We can see that now.
 
Mcmasters said:
But in many ways they were correct in their thinking. People do watch a lot of Netflix and a lot of sports, and so on. Granted games should have been the focal point upon the initial reveal, but they were right. In fact, a lot of what they began with were the right choices. Perhaps not the right time, but certainly the way to go. We can see that now.
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The data they were looking at was correct -- people used the 360 to watch a lot of Netflix, etc. That's indisputable; it's hard data. However, the assumption they made based on that data was incorrect -- i.e., that people would buy a $500 machine based primarily on whether it had good TV/cable integration features, and that's what their audience cared most about. As usual, it's not the facts themselves but how you interpret them that gets you in trouble...
 
XBO releasing the same year as the PS4=auto loss add the other issues like higher price tag,kinect,DRM,TV talk etc made it even worse.
 
Andy said:
The data they were looking at was correct -- people used the 360 to watch a lot of Netflix, etc. That's indisputable; it's hard data. However, the assumption they made based on that data was incorrect -- i.e., that people would buy a $500 machine based primarily on whether it had good TV/cable integration features, and that's what their audience cared most about. As usual, it's not the facts themselves but how you interpret them that gets you in trouble...
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Pretty much. They were pitting the Xbox One up against Apple TV/Roku/Amazon Fire HD, but charging $400 more, and aiming this product at the hardcore gamer. It was a huge disconnect.

When the Xbox One reaches $99 (at it's current rate in like a year or two) it'll easily be the best offering for media consumption bar none unless. I doubt Roku/Apple/Amazon will be releasing some crazy paradigm shifting device.

Though Amazon's X-Ray feature is pretty awesome.
 
Mcmasters said:
I dont agree with that. You dont go through an entire generation and not come away with some idea of what direction to push towards in the next. Again though, not so many were willing to follow. Either that, or like Yankee said; "it just wasnt the right time."

Still, you gotta think though; that was a lot to throw on the hardcore crowd on top of gaming. Maybe some people were just overwhelmed and started crying. No one was around to give them a hug, or tell them everything was going to be okay.

HARDCORE GAMER: "Wait, wha!? TV? Kinect? Always online? DRM? And games?....they....they changed everything. This....this is too much. I need a hug!

MOM: "Billy! Getcho lil' emotional ass up here and finish these dishes, boy!"

HARDCORE GAMER: "Bu...bu...but MOM!! The DRM's!"

MOM: "Ain't no body got time for dat!"
Click to expand...

Their idea was wrong though. That's why I said the lesson learned was actually a lesson misunderstood.

It's pretty obvious to me one of their biggest influences in the design and direction of the xb1 was the statistics they enjoyed putting out there about people watching more netflix, hulu, hbogo etc on the 360 than time spent gaming. The lesson misunderstood stemmed from them believing that people wanted TV TV TV from their video game console because of those statistics. MS misunderstood netflix bingers. they misunderstood people cutting the cord.

To me their initial direction with the xb1 was that of a company that had no understanding of their audience because of complete disconnect. the fact that they went through 180 after 180 after people either were fired or reassigned is proof of this to me. add to fact that they closed down their tv studios and what not. Nadella and Spencer are far more intune with the xbox audience than Balmer and Matrick ever were.

Of course, this is just my view as an outsider. I have the same outlook as Andy as to the initial. wrong, direction of the xb1.

And I disagree, it was not a lot to throw at the hardcore gaming crowd. It was stupid to invite the GAMING press, fully know and be aware that it would be the hardcore gamer tuning in to the reveal of the new xbox, the successor of the xbox 360, and do the s*** ass reveal that they did.

Add to the fact that they had to make sacrifices to the gaming hardware in order to pursue their disconnected vision. The backlash was obvious and it was obvious from the year preceding that there would be backlash when all the rumors were circulating. Yet, they still went forward with it because they were so discomnected with their consumers

The same disconnect can be seen on the windows side with win8 when they tried to bring a tablet oriented OS to the desktop. just freaking stupid and disconnected from your audience. Sinofsky, the head and creator of Win8 was forced to leave or was fired because the backlash to Win8 and just how stupid the design was.
 
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Yup ^. And I'll just add, I don't think the disconnect and the misinterpretation of data were random. I think they wanted to see the data that way, because it fed into their dream of taking over the living room, being the hub through which all media flowed. Like all of us, Microsoft got in trouble when they saw what they wanted to see, rather than what was really there.
 
Honestly think MS just thought every one who owned an 360 would naturally upgrade to the one . Problem was, they didn't address the hardcore on announcement and no backwards compatibility.

If these 2 points were made I doubt xbox would be that far behind ps4 even at $100 more.
 
ZombiesRUCrazy said:
Their idea was wrong though. That's why I said the lesson learned was actually a lesson misunderstood.

It's pretty obvious to me one of their biggest influences in the design and direction of the xb1 was the statistics they enjoyed putting out there about people watching more netflix, hulu, hbogo etc on the 360 than time spent gaming. The lesson misunderstood stemmed from them believing that people wanted TV TV TV from their video game console because of those statistics. MS misunderstood netflix bingers. they misunderstood people cutting the cord.

To me their initial direction with the xb1 was that of a company that had no understanding of their audience because of complete disconnect. the fact that they went through 180 after 180 after people either were fired or reassigned is proof of this to me. add to fact that they closed down their tv studios and what not. Nadella and Spencer are far more intune with the xbox audience than Balmer and Matrick ever were.

Of course, this is just my view as an outsider. I have the same outlook as Andy as to the initial. wrong, direction of the xb1.

And I disagree, it was not a lot to throw at the hardcore gaming crowd. It was stupid to invite the GAMING press, fully know and be aware that it would be the hardcore gamer tuning in to the reveal of the new xbox, the successor of the xbox 360, and do the s*** ass reveal that they did.

Add to the fact that they had to make sacrifices to the gaming hardware in order to pursue their disconnected vision. The backlash was obvious and it was obvious from the year preceding that there would be backlash when all the rumors were circulating. Yet, they still went forward with it because they were so discomnected with their consumers

The same disconnect can be seen on the windows side with win8 when they tried to bring a tablet oriented OS to the desktop. just freaking stupid and disconnected from your audience. Sinofsky, the head and creator of Win8 was forced to leave or was fired because the backlash to Win8 and just how stupid the design was.
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I'd also imagine a lot of hardcore gamers got a PS3 from 2010 onwards as Sony were delivering top exclusives whilst MS sort of just stopped for a while and released not much; I know that was the case with me. A lot of later 360 sales seemed to have come from Kinect and being a cheap media device whereas the PS3 later sales came from exclusives like TLOU and GT5.
 
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timmy-boy said:
I'd also imagine a lot of hardcore gamers got a PS3 from 2010 onwards as Sony were delivering top exclusives whilst MS sort of just stopped for a while and released not much; I know that was the case with me. A lot of later 360 sales seemed to have come from Kinect and being a cheap media device whereas the PS3 later sales came from exclusives like TLOU and GT5.
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Imo, it wasn't that microsoft wasn't releasing exclusives, it's that they were heavily relying on the same franchises.

Halo fable gears and forza became the staple of the 360 the second half of its gen with a couple one offs like Alan Wake thrown in there.
 
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lol the $100 difference at launch was like hitting a stake already deep in their heart with a gravity hammer.
 
ZombiesRUCrazy said:
Imo, it wasn't that microsoft wasn't releasing exclusives, it's that they were heavily relying on the same franchises.

Halo fable gears and forza became the staple of the 360 the second half of it's gen with a couple one offs like Alan Wake thrown in their.
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As hardcore an xbox guy as I was at that time they really turned me off by only going with Halo, Forza, Fable and Gears over and over again, most of the last two years was spent on Kinect titles and XBLA games and that wasn't enough to keep me interested.
 
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JinCA said:
As hardcore an xbox guy as I was at that time they really turned me off by only going with Halo, Forza, Fable and Gears over and over again, most of the last two years was spent on Kinect titles and XBLA games and that wasn't enough to keep me interested.
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You didn't want to see what the bottom of an avatar's shoe looked like?!

Jokes aside, I do feel bad that Kinect got dropped from XBO. Or rather I feel bad for developers more than anything or all 8 who were making Kinect games anyway.
 
Andy said:
Yup ^. And I'll just add, I don't think the disconnect and the misinterpretation of data were random. I think they wanted to see the data that way, because it fed into their dream of taking over the living room, being the hub through which all media flowed. Like all of us, Microsoft got in trouble when they saw what they wanted to see, rather than what was really there.
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Andy? Really? I expect better from you.
A Multi BILLION dollar company essentially followed their emotions, and thats where the disconnect comes from?! lol. Their hearts ran away with their brains, eh? ....Wow. You cant possibly believe that.

And before you say, "thats not what I said". I want you to know in the business world, that exactly what your saying. Its nothing personal. Pun intended.

Its funny how far gone the posts get the more Xbox One is brought up with posters from opposite sides of the fence. Just an observation....
 
Mcmasters said:
Andy? Really? I expect better from you.
A Multi BILLION dollar company essentially followed their emotions, and thats where the disconnect comes from?! lol. Their hearts ran away with their brains, eh? ....Wow. You cant possibly believe that.

And before you say, "thats not what I said". I want you to know in the business world, that exactly what your saying. Its nothing personal. Pun intended.

Its funny how far gone the posts get the more Xbox One is brought up with posters from opposite sides of the fence. Just an observation....
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Well Romney said corporations are people and people have feelings.

[HASHTAG]#TidalFacts[/HASHTAG]
 
Ketto said:
Well Romney said corporations are people and people have feelings.

[HASHTAG]#TidalFacts[/HASHTAG]
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But that is coming from a man who thought opening a window on a plane at 35,000ft was a good idea...

:laugh:
 
Microsoft dropped the ball this gen, there is no denying it. The Xbox One though is a great console overall. But perception is reality and MS have to build on convincing gamers that the Xbox One is worth having. This is going to take a lot of time though.
 
JinCA said:
As hardcore an xbox guy as I was at that time they really turned me off by only going with Halo, Forza, Fable and Gears over and over again, most of the last two years was spent on Kinect titles and XBLA games and that wasn't enough to keep me interested.
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Was getting bad with Halo 4 leaving a sour taste in my mouth.
 
TheGeneral said:
Microsoft dropped the ball this gen, there is no denying it. The Xbox One though is a great console overall. But perception is reality and MS have to build on convincing gamers that the Xbox One is worth having. This is going to take a lot of time though.
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Unfortunately this is true. The fact that they reversed many policies before the console even hit the shelf doesn't matter, the negativity is still out there.

Sadly, many X1 owners are very happy with their console, myself included. That's not what people hear though.

Perception is reality though like you said. People still say things like X1 is more a media center than a game console, which to me is just silly. I'm a gamer first and foremost, and I use my X1 for gaming 90% of the time.
 
ZombiesRUCrazy said:
Imo, it wasn't that microsoft wasn't releasing exclusives, it's that they were heavily relying on the same franchises.

Halo fable gears and forza became the staple of the 360 the second half of its gen with a couple one offs like Alan Wake thrown in there.
Click to expand...

What was bad is that some of these franchises were getting worse not better. Forza was consistently good whilst Halo got divisive but Fable just went down the pan after 3 and lost it. Judgement also wasn't that good. Oh and Crackdown 2 was also worse than the first.
 
Mcmasters said:
Andy? Really? I expect better from you.
A Multi BILLION dollar company essentially followed their emotions, and thats where the disconnect comes from?! lol. Their hearts ran away with their brains, eh? ....Wow. You cant possibly believe that.

And before you say, "thats not what I said". I want you to know in the business world, that exactly what your saying. Its nothing personal. Pun intended.
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I've disappointed you. How ever will I carry on?

As usual, you are painting things in a histrionic and simplistic way. It's not about them being "emotional;" it's about them having a perceptual bias. Everyone has them, even (gasp) people who sit around committee tables and make these decisions. Data rarely speak for themselves; they require interpretation. Interpretations can be skewed by a variety of factors -- previous plans, pre-established ways of seeing things, agendas, hopes, expectations, etc.. In MS's case, I'd guess it was all of the above.

See, this is normal stuff, Marty. Everyone does it. You did it when you read my post. I probably do it when I read your posts. We all filter data through our own perceptual biases. The same thing is true for companies. They are not computers; they are run by people. Anyone who's sat in on a few business meetings can tell you how un-computer-like they can sometimes be -- with decisions subtly (and sometimes not so subtly) shaped by agendas, pre-conceived ways of viewing things, hopes, expectations, anxieties, group-think, etc.

I'm actually providing a nice, normal explanation for their mistakes. The alternative is that they are simply bonehead incompetent.

p.s. Oh wait, I forgot your third explanation: they were ahead of the curve, and it's gamers' fault.
 
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Andy said:
I've disappointed you. How ever will I carry on?

As usual, you are painting things in a histrionic and simplistic way. It's not about them being "emotional;" it's about them having a perceptual bias. Everyone has them, even (gasp) people who sit around committee tables and make these decisions. Data rarely speak for themselves; they require interpretation. Interpretations can be skewed by a variety of factors -- previous plans, pre-established ways of seeing things, agendas, hopes, expectations, etc.. In MS's case, I'd guess it was all of the above.

See, this is normal stuff, Marty. Everyone does it. You did it when you read my post. I probably do it when I read your posts. We all filter data through our own perceptual biases. The same thing is true for companies. They are not computers; they are run by people. Anyone who's sat in on a few business meetings can tell you how un-computer-like they can sometimes be -- with decisions subtly (and sometimes not so subtly) shaped by agendas, pre-conceived ways of viewing things, hopes, expectations, anxieties, group-think, etc.

I'm actually providing a nice, normal explanation for their mistakes. The alternative is that they are simply bonehead incompetent.

p.s. Oh wait, I forgot your third explanation: they were ahead of the curve, and it's gamers' fault.
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Not to mention the same data can be interpreted different ways.
 
Andy said:
I've disappointed you. How ever will I carry on?

As usual, you are painting things in a histrionic and simplistic way. It's not about them being "emotional;" it's about them having a perceptual bias. Everyone has them, even (gasp) people who sit around committee tables and make these decisions. Data rarely speak for themselves; they require interpretation. Interpretations can be skewed by a variety of factors -- previous plans, pre-established ways of seeing things, agendas, hopes, expectations, etc.. In MS's case, I'd guess it was all of the above.

See, this is normal stuff, Marty. Everyone does it. You did it when you read my post. I probably do it when I read your posts. We all filter data through our own perceptual biases. The same thing is true for companies. They are not computers; they are run by people. Anyone who's sat in on a few business meetings can tell you how un-computer-like they can sometimes be -- with decisions subtly (and sometimes not so subtly) shaped by agendas, pre-conceived ways of viewing things, hopes, expectations, anxieties, group-think, etc.

I'm actually providing a nice, normal explanation for their mistakes. The alternative is that they are simply bonehead incompetent.

p.s. Oh wait, I forgot your third explanation: they were ahead of the curve, and it's gamers' fault.
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Those damn consumers, who do they think they are to reject a product's pitch? Consumers?!?!
 
I think a training course on human factors or needs and requirements analysis would probably blow Mcmasters' mind.

Businesses often make terrible and seemingly illogical decisions within their own bubble, in the console space it is every generation.

Sony made more than a few with PS3 and Vita not to mention their other core businesses over the years.

Nintendo's entire Wii U strategy has been a disaster - a follow up to its best performing home console that will end up the company's worst performing ever.

Sega destroyed its brand name and balance sheet in the nineties with a saturation of consecutive poor products in a short time frame. A bitter power struggle between HQs in USA and Japan was one the causes of that.

Each one of these companies thought they had a winning strategy and product going into a new generation, and each one was proven wrong by the market. Fortunately for Microsoft they had the feedback of potential consumers before the Xbox One's launch to change course on some of those decisions.
 
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Troublegum said:
I think a training course on human factors or needs and requirements analysis would probably blow Mcmasters' mind.

Businesses often make terrible and seemingly illogical decisions within their own bubble, in the console space it is every generation.

Sony made more than a few with PS3 and Vita not to mention their other core businesses over the years.

Nintendo's entire Wii U strategy has been a disaster - a follow up to its best performing home console that will end up the company's worst performing ever.

Sega destroyed its brand name and balance sheet in the nineties with a saturation of consecutive poor products in a short time frame. A bitter power struggle between HQs in USA and Japan was one the causes of that.

Each one of these companies thought they had a winning strategy and product going into a new generation, and each one was proven wrong by the market. Fortunately for Microsoft they had the feedback of potential consumers before the Xbox One's launch to change course on some of those decisions.
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They were all the gamers fault. You need to stop being bias in your data interpretations.
 
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