The End of the United States: A Political Thread.

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Plainview

I am a sinner.
Sep 11, 2013
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Manafort is going to plead guilty in the second trial. The agreement is not yet out, but there is a new superceding "information" filing, which apparently is like an indictment but only used for cases that don't require a grand jury indictment or when the defendant has agreed to plead guilty (see the Cohen guilty plea).

The filing apparently has a ton of documentary evidence, which from what I'm reading is extraordinarily rare. Speculation is that they're doing this so that any pardon will be seen as what it is: a CYA by Trump, since it lays out explicitly how effing guilty Manafort is. It also does still include forfeiture of a lot of his property. Whether or not he's cooperating remains to be seen.
 

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https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/09/14/the-manafort-plea-is-pardon-proof/

I was virtually certain that the plea deal Manafort is pleading to today would include cooperation — and I was correct. Andrew Weissmann told Amy Berman Jackson that the deal does require Manafort cooperation.​
I was certain not just because of the tease in the Special Counsel announcement, above, that additional information would be forthcoming.​
But the fact that no media outlet was able to confirm whether or not the plea would include cooperation could only be possible if Mueller had made silence about that fact part of the deal. Otherwise, Manafort’s lawyers would have confirmed that it included no cooperation to placate the President.​
And at this point, the deal is pardon proof. That was part of keeping the detail secret: to prevent a last minute pardon from Trump undercutting it.​
Here’s why this deal is pardon proof:​
  1. Mueller spent the hour and a half delay in arraignment doing … something. It’s possible Manafort even presented the key parts of testimony Mueller needs from him to the grand jury this morning.
    1. The forfeiture in this plea is both criminal and civil, meaning DOJ will be able to get Manafort’s $46 million even with a pardon.
      1. Some of the dismissed charges are financial ones that can be charged in various states.
Remember, back in January, Trump told friends and aides that Manafort could incriminate him (the implication was that only Manafort could). I believe Mueller needed Manafort to describe what happened in a June 7, 2016 meeting between the men. I have long suspected there was another meeting at which Manafort may be the other Trump aide attendee.​
And Manafort has probably already provided evidence on whatever Mueller needed.​
As I disclosed July, I provided information to the FBI on issues related to the Mueller investigation, so I’m going to include disclosure statements on Mueller investigation posts from here on out. I will include the disclosure whether or not the stuff I shared with the FBI pertains to the subject of the post.
 

hrudey

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Sep 11, 2013
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I imagine the next shoe to drop is Trump, Jr. Now that they have Manafort and certainly his testimony, I'm certain they've got all they need to corroborate whatever evidence they already have (almost certainly overwhelming) on the Trump Tower meeting with the Russian wing of their campaign.
 

Kerosene31

What happened to the American Dream? It came true.
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Just wait for tomorrow's 5am tweetstorm where Trump will say Manafort is a traitor and deep state operative.
 

hrudey

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I wonder if the cooperation agreement includes some understanding with the NY AG that says they won't prosecute on the state level as long as he's compliant, just in case Trump did still decide to go with the pardon. I don't know if that's something they can wrap into this, but I bet there's at minimum a wink-wink, nod-nod arrangement so that no matter what, he does some time and Trump's pardon or lack thereof has no real effect.
 

hrudey

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I wonder if the cooperation agreement includes some understanding with the NY AG that says they won't prosecute on the state level as long as he's compliant, just in case Trump did still decide to go with the pardon. I don't know if that's something they can wrap into this, but I bet there's at minimum a wink-wink, nod-nod arrangement so that no matter what, he does some time and Trump's pardon or lack thereof has no real effect.
Don't know that, but I saw this:

This has the feel of one of those days that big news drops and then gets suplexed by even bigger news (like the first trial verdict and then Cohen's deal). Maybe it'll be a DJT indictment dropping before the end of the day? I dunno, though - that seems a bit fast and Mueller's been deliberate about building his case from the outside in, and they may want to take a little time before moving on before starting to reach endgame.
 

Plainview

I am a sinner.
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Don't know that, but I saw this:

This has the feel of one of those days that big news drops and then gets suplexed by even bigger news (like the first trial verdict and then Cohen's deal). Maybe it'll be a DJT indictment dropping before the end of the day? I dunno, though - that seems a bit fast and Mueller's been deliberate about building his case from the outside in, and they may want to take a little time before moving on before starting to reach endgame.
I dunno. This is pretty big news. I think it will take a few weeks until another bomb is dropped.
 

hrudey

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The plea agreement is in.


And info is already flowing to the SC:

 

Bellybama

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It may not be anything more than that; it's basically standard practice for any knowledge that comes in about a nominee that could affect their suitability to serve be referred to the FBI to be attached to their file, which is then reviewed by the White House to see if they want to appoint the person or not. I'll give you three guesses how that White House review will turn out, and I'll be generous and let you use the two extra guesses you won't need to try to guess Bellybama 's middle name.
My middle name is TAFKAP, but not for the same reasons as Prince.
 

horns

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Sep 14, 2013
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I imagine the next shoe to drop is Trump, Jr. Now that they have Manafort and certainly his testimony, I'm certain they've got all they need to corroborate whatever evidence they already have (almost certainly overwhelming) on the Trump Tower meeting with the Russian wing of their campaign.
I feel like it's going to be Roger Stone before Jr. Once Mueller goes after Jr (or any Trump family members) there's zero chance Trump will complete an interview with the special counsel. He'll become even more unhinged and reckless.

Still, today's situation indicates they're aiming for someone higher.
 

Plainview

I am a sinner.
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I feel like it's going to be Roger Stone before Jr. Once Mueller goes after Jr (or any Trump family members) there's zero chance Trump will complete an interview with the special counsel. He'll become even more unhinged and reckless.

Still, today's situation indicates they're aiming for someone higher.
It could be stone, but he seems too small of a fish to grant manafort the deal for stone, unless there’s a lot more to the stone story than what we know now?
 

horns

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Sep 14, 2013
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I agree the Manafort deal isn't for Stone. They spent a lot of time and money preparing for his trial. It's for a bigger fish. I just think Stone will be charged before Jr.
 

yankeessuck

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"They aren't going to vote for us anyway so f*** em"

Republicans are trash
People that continue to vote for Republicans are trash
 

Viktor

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It's not much, but Sen Flake just called on the Kavanaugh vote to be delayed.
 

Plainview

I am a sinner.
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It's not much, but Sen Flake just called on the Kavanaugh vote to be delayed.
And he pretty much tried to rape a girl. He fits right in on trumps molestation, rape, sexual assault, looking at underage girls nude world.
 

Plainview

I am a sinner.
Sep 11, 2013
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Watch Active Measures. It was on YouTube. It’s now available to rent for $1.99. The connections from russia to trump is insane. This needs to be seen by all.