I wrote this on Xbox Era in regards to predictions for another big move.
I’ve been arguing against the “temper the expectations” group and had been predicting something big to come soon for over a year. I have 0 inside sources. I just follow what Nadella and Hood keep saying. Nadella sat on the board of Netflix, understands what it takes to make a content driven, paradigm shifting, engagement focused product work not just in the US but in the entire world.
I am in the midst of writing an article for Xbox Era but will share this graph from Business Insider that tells a lot of the story.
Netflix is now closely approaching 200 million subscribers. These are feasible numbers for the Netflix of gaming within the next 10 to 15 years due to the quickly changing landscape of local tech, cloud tech and the internet. Game Pass lucked out due to everyone being stuck in-doors and it’s numbers are likely inflated ahead of schedule however that doesn’t matter when the early years of a service it’s all about mindshare and spreading awareness of your product. You can see it took Netflix 5 years to hit 23 million but due to improving technology for streaming video and casting their net world wide, they had single years after that where they’ve done close to that amount or more. In comparison, Game Pass is on a great pace.
In order for Microsoft to have that sort of bump outside of the west in a few years, they’ll need to make another major move. Something that appeals to parts of Europe outside of the UK and Japan. Basically Sony territories. Netflix is spending 17 billion in content this year and a lot of that content is to target parts of the world outside of the US. I’m not predicting anything big gets announced in 2020 but I expect something big to happen again. They’ve got a lot on their plates to finish the Bethesda deal first…but maybe that’s why Bethesda operates independently. Makes it easier to expand fast. Basically I think it’s just a question of when another big thing happens. Not if.