Numbers Discussion Thread

[Jackie_Fhan]

Why don't you have an avatar yet? Get one....it kinda freaks me out.



Fixed.



The 360 sold better than the PS3 because of the games.



It's 5 million sold to retailers. Retailers ordered them and paid for them so they can meet consumer demand. They are sold. 5 million plus Xbox One's sold worldwide is great. And just think, once they get to more countries than just the 13 they have now, it's gonna be smooth sailing. I mean, look at how they are trouncing the sales figures for the Xbox 360 and PS3 in the same time frame (as well as the Xbox Original). Just destroying them. Great news for gamers.

Correct me if I'm wrong but for the time periods, PS3 has always sold better than 360. Especially since they are near even sales wise, with ps3 possibly pulling ahead. 360 was on the market for a year longer, so it's really really easy to see that ps3 did in fact sell better overall and is still getting a lot of amazing titles (imo some of the best titles) released for it this year such as drakengard 3.

So what Neo was saying is easily proved wrong, it's just "..." his idea basically.

 

[Jackie_Fhan]

I was reading an article the other day about how some people get their personal identities wrapped up in a particular thing they have bought. A car, a console, whatever. Because they've got their identities wrapped up in it, when you criticize that thing, it feels to them like a personal attack, and they defend that product like they're defending themselves. I thought about fanboys...

You should just understand basic psychology, it would go much further and make much much more sense than that rookie article. You know people are more than likely from evolution, what do monekys/dogs do. Ponder upon it on your self how people sink in everything they see, hear etc it's just a repeat fest. Hear, see do.

 

[DriedMangoes]

So you have all the concrete, dead to rights, Walmart and E-Com numbers that NPD can't even produce? Talk about reaching. You are trying to convince us that MS has around 1 million or more X1s just laying around, even though they have shipped to be sold 5 million units? If this was the case, they wouldn't have shipped another million plus over the last 3 months. It would have been less than 500K or worse considered they shipped 3.9 million by end of December 2013 and by your numbers, they have only sold through less than 4 million units. So if your numbers are facts, which they aren't, that means MS is lying to us and to their investors, which I'm pretty sure is against the law, otherwise they just shipped another million for the hell of it, while retailers ordered another 1 million plus just to do MS a favor, LMAO!

And yes. I pulled those MS and Sony numbers out of the air, just like Sony did with that 7 million number. Just like MS did with that early 3+ million number. They can only produce what they have sold to their retailers, which Sony did. 7+ million. Just like MS did. 5+ million.

Any numbers, from any one that gives overall sales from all retailers to customer is guesstimating based off of shipped to retail numbers (if you use NPD or take them seriously, then the joke is on you since they only use about 50 to 60 percent of the overall market, while trying to guesstimate the rest. Might as well just use VGchartz, LOL!). It happens once in a blue moon from MS, Sony and Nintendo because they know they are guesstimating, while shipped to retail numbers is concrete since these are the same numbers mentioned in quarter/fiscal reports from all companies, letting their stock holders know how well a product is doing.

This is common knowledge by the way, which is why I take guesstimating with a grain of salt until I see the actual shipped to retail numbers. I have been a stock holder long enough in multiple companies to know the difference. I also understand how the retail chain works, but I figured that is common sense. I guess I figured wrong.

They might have shipped more because they thought TF would move more consoles, who knows. You and I both don't know the exact numbers. My numbers were based on historical data and fair assumptions. Even if the X1 selling rate was as high as during launch and Christmas time (which I think it's not), the most X1 could sell through were 4.2 million. Again, this is based on factual and historical evidence so I'd say it'd be a fair guess. Much better guess than your 4.6-4.7 million just because you think that's the number it sold through.

Yes, they are guesstimates but they are the only thing we have to go on and the best estimates we can get. You think you can guess better than MS or NPD? No, you can't and that's why MS hasn't announced the 4.6-4.7 million sold through number that you think they did.

 

[Andy]

You should just understand basic psychology, it would go much further and make much much more sense than that rookie article. You know people are more than likely from evolution, what do monekys/dogs do. Ponder upon it on your self how people sink in everything they see, hear etc it's just a repeat fest. Hear, see do.

Thank you for the insights on human psychology.

 

[eastside49er]

I'm not taking it as gospel. I'm assuming both are rounding up a bit. So that puts Sony at 6.8-7 mil sold through and Microsoft at 4.8-5 mil shipped to retail.

You are falling right into Microsoft's PR trap. If the difference between Microsoft's shipped and sold through was only 100k-200k they would have said it or claimed 5 mil sold through and avoided any speculation to the contrary.

For all we know, they may only be at 4.2 mil, hence why stores have been selling it for under $500 without an official price drop. Also, earlier in the year Microsoft announced 3 million Ones sold through and 4 million shipped to retail. That's a difference of 1 million units.

Don't get me wrong, the One is doing really well and I own one, but Sony is just in a league of its own right now in terms of sales, aided by a lower price, more power, and bad MS press about DRM, Kinect, and TV features.

Not falling for any trap. I'm using common sense. MS, Sony and Nintendo only care about one thing. Sales to retail. If retailers are buying, that means the customer is buying. If they cared about sold to customer numbers or actually had concrete data, they would put those numbers, not sold to retail numbers, in their quarter/fiscal reports.

And yes, MS has guesstimated in the past too. That 3+ million number was thrown out there based on sold to retail. MS had no idea the actual number, hence the plus added to back of the 3. Sony did the same thing with the 7 million number. They have shipped over 7 million, that they know, so they threw out 7 million units are in customers hands. They don't know. They are only basing it off of their sold to retail numbers and probably what they have in their warehouses or units already purchased by retailers.

I've been around gaming since the 80s, own multiple stocks in companies and have seen the guesstimating game done hundreds of times. Concrete numbers to me are sold to retail. Always have been. Always will be. NPD does the exact same thing with their numbers. They don't get companies like Walmart or E-Coms to give them numbers so they guesstimate. That is kind of why I stopped taking NPD seriously a long time ago.

Any way, I'm basing my numbers off of what I know. I know MS sold to retail 3.9 million by end of December 2013 and they wouldn't shipped another million plus to retailers over the last 3 months if they are still stuck at around 4 million. That is common sense and retail 101. If they were still stuck at 4 million or close to it, they would have shipped well under 500K. That is just a fact because retailers wouldn't have ask for more units since they would have had plenty.

 

[spid]

Yes it is. US loves their shooters, especially on the Xbox. MS did well to hype and promote this like crazy although it's apparent it's not the system seller they say it was.

Microsoft is having record sells for the Xbox line. How do you know Titanfall wasn't a system seller? The exclusivity news broke before the Xbox one was released.

 

[starseeker]

I'm not taking it as gospel. I'm assuming both are rounding up a bit. So that puts Sony at 6.8-7 mil sold through and Microsoft at 4.8-5 mil shipped to retail.

You are falling right into Microsoft's PR trap. If the difference between Microsoft's shipped and sold through was only 100k-200k they would have said it or claimed 5 mil sold through and avoided any speculation to the contrary.

For all we know, they may only be at 4.2 mil, hence why stores have been selling it for under $500 without an official price drop. Also, earlier in the year Microsoft announced 3 million Ones sold through and 4 million shipped to retail. That's a difference of 1 million units.

Don't get me wrong, the One is doing really well and I own one, but Sony is just in a league of its own right now in terms of sales, aided by a lower price, more power, and bad MS press about DRM, Kinect, and TV features.

Wait, are you trying to explain using logic?

 

[DriedMangoes]

Microsoft is having record sells for the Xbox line. How do you know Titanfall wasn't a system seller? The exclusivity news broke before the Xbox one was released.

Because if it was, we would see X1 take March NPD with all the promotions and deal bundles going on. What was the lowest I've seen it, like $450 for TF bundle, extra controller or game with 12 months live? That makes the X1 only like $330 + tax for the console itself. I'd say that's a damn hot deal yet it wasn't enough to overtake the PS4. Why? Probably because most of the people who wanted TF already bought the X1 and was waiting for TF's release. 1 million X1 copies sold yet only 311k new console owners.

 

[Kable]

Correct me if I'm wrong but for the time periods, PS3 has always sold better than 360. Especially since they are near even sales wise, with ps3 possibly pulling ahead. 360 was on the market for a year longer, so it's really really easy to see that ps3 did in fact sell better overall and is still getting a lot of amazing titles (imo some of the best titles) released for it this year such as drakengard 3.

So what Neo was saying is easily proved wrong, it's just "..." his idea basically.

PS3 tanked at the $499/599 price point, it wasn't until after the '07 E3 price drop that it started gaining momentum.

 

[Jackie_Fhan]

Thank you for the insights on human psychology.

Your welcome, we could turn all these fanboys into the opposite with just a bit of psychology and time. Would be easier if we could just 88mph them back to a younger age and feed them the opposite game box though, better yet. Any time sir.

I'm telling you anderson, if you can make this happen

We could do it, we could have them become multi platform warriors and your job here would be like sweet chocolate.

 

[Ketto]

The console wars have come full circle.

 

[Jackie_Fhan]

PS3 tanked at the $499/599 price point, it wasn't until after the '07 E3 price drop that it started gaining momentum.

It was still higher than 360, which was his point.

 

[Jackie_Fhan]

The console wars have come full circle.

You post so little I thought you was a xbox fanboy juding by the avatar.

 

[Ketto]

I often disappear for months then come back and post very frequently for months, then disappear again.

 

[Andy]

I often disappear for months then come back and post very frequently for months, then disappear again.

Binge posting.

Good to see you back. We need people with real technical knowledge around here, to straighten things out.

 

[Jackie_Fhan]

I often disappear for months then come back and post very frequently for months, then disappear again.

Shouldn't do that, school and stuff isn't as important as your family.

 

[Ketto]

Binge posting.

Good to see you back. We need people with real technical knowledge around here, to straighten things out.

But it's much more fun to read gibberish with technical words sprinkled in with a few random links that play to confirmation bias along with a bunch of pictures of arrows pointing to random parts as proof!

potential of the cell dPGU mang The PS3One is going to blow your socks off when developers finally get those new tools.

Shouldn't do that, school and stuff isn't as important as your family.

Money is the most important thing of all! *dives in pool full of US dollars*

Jokes aside, I've actually been apprenticing with this hand lettering designer for the past few months. I've learned I have a love of typography that is even deeper than I originally thought.

 

[Jackie_Fhan]

So, for Master Miller and the rest. How far ahead will ps4 be Next NPD?

70k? 100k? Keep in mind TF is gone, they haven't pushed anything for this month and they have been dropping on the sales charts while PS4 has been basically where it was last month. That doesn't mean it will sell as much though, cause TF and Infamous were big sellers.

Does anyone actually have any faith that X1 will win april? Unless MS does some major price drop now. It can't happen I think.

 

[spid]

Because if it was, we would see X1 take March NPD with all the promotions and deal bundles going on. What was the lowest I've seen it, like $450 for TF bundle, extra controller or game with 12 months live? That makes the X1 only like $330 + tax for the console itself. I'd say that's a damn hot deal yet it wasn't enough to overtake the PS4. Why? Probably because most of the people who wanted TF already bought the X1 and was waiting for TF's release. 1 million X1 copies sold yet only 311k new console owners.

This logic assumes people wait until the last minute to buy a console when a game they really want comes out which is faulty. We can not know how many people went ahead and bought the Xbox One as soon as they heard Titanfall was exclusive. And since we know the One is selling at a record clip for them one can suppose Titanfall helped especially if roughly 1 out 4 or 1 out 5 people who own a Xbox One now own Titanfall.

 

[Jackie_Fhan]

But it's much more fun to read gibberish with technical words sprinkled in with a few random links that play to confirmation bias along with a bunch of pictures of arrows pointing to random parts as proof!

potential of the cell dPGU mang The PS3One is going to blow your socks off when developers finally get those new tools.


Money is the most important thing of all! *dives in pool full of US dollars*

Jokes aside, I've actually been apprenticing with this hand lettering designer for the past few months. I've learned I have a love of typography that is even deeper than I originally thought.

Well, only takes a few min. to come say hello

 

[DriedMangoes]

This logic assumes people wait until the last minute to buy a console when a game they really want comes out which is faulty. We can not know how many people went ahead and bought the Xbox One as soon as they heard Titanfall was exclusive. And since we know the One is selling at a record clip for them one can suppose Titanfall helped especially if roughly 1 out 4 or 1 out 5 people who own a Xbox One now own Titanfall.

Well, yeah. When a system seller comes out, it'd be logical to assume that a large amount of consoles would be moved as well... wasn't there a bump in sales when Halo came out?

 

[JinCA]

Have you missed the part of where is said that x1 tools are broken and hard to work with? So fixing that and adding DX12 on top of it means PS4 tools can't improve as much because they weren't as broken. DX12 took at least 3 years with multiple companies to make doubt that Sony will match it anytime soon.

Seems that you also missed the part of where DX12 will be exactly the same across PC,x1, and Phones so that gives a lot of incentive for DX12 with those 3 to be leading platforms.

Hardware and tools are of same importance. Nvidia and Intel claim that it's biggest performance booster ever and for PC it will likely increase GPU performance 2x so with those tools x1 would no longer be weaker.

I have never read that their tools were broken only that they weren't as mature as what sony had going for the PS4, funny how a software company was behind with it's tools isn't it? think it was possibly a silly hardware design that caused that? Both machines will improve when it comes to performance over time, you aren't going to see the X1 pull ahead of the PS4 though, it's just not as powerful of a machine. If you don't want to accept that and you want to continue waiting for this magical thing that's going to happen where devs take advantage of some small pool of eSRAM or a new SDK (even though that is common with consoles) or DX12 that's totally up to you. I'm starting to think they should have named it the Xbox Unicorn instead of the Xbox One.

 

[Ceger]

No need to feel sad, because......

no one is calling doom and gloom on MS's numbers, not here at least.

Was more referencing the articles all coming out about it, such as Motley Fool's, etc..

It's not saddening as in feelings hurt, more sad in that it is the state of mind of media and morons. That I need to share a worlds with them and they have the voice they have is nonsense.

 

[Mcmasters]

7 million sold through to consumers for PS4.
5 million shipped to stores for One.

 

[Hammerclaw]

Yes it is. US loves their shooters, especially on the Xbox. MS did well to hype and promote this like crazy although it's apparent it's not the system seller they say it was.

Actually, it is. It's probably responsible for at least fifty percent of hardware sales to date. Most of the early adopters who wanted an Xbox and play Titanfall had already bought one. Without it, the Xbox would be in dire straits.

 

[Hammerclaw]

The console wars have come full circle.

Baron Von Muchausen, Your back!

 

[spid]

Well, yeah. When a system seller comes out, it'd be logical to assume that a large amount of consoles would be moved as well... wasn't there a bump in sales when Halo came out?

Halo 3 came out almost two years after the 360 came out while Titanfall came out a few months of release. That is a big difference in wait times and the potential buyers.

 

[Dno69]

I think the attention should be less on how bad MS is doing (because they aren't doing bad) and more on how fantastic Sony is doing.

People can't truly be happy about their purchase decision until they trash someone else's purchase decision.

 

[Viktor]

Was more referencing the articles all coming out about it, such as Motley Fool's, etc..

It's not saddening as in feelings hurt, more sad in that it is the state of mind of media and morons. That I need to share a worlds with them and they have the voice they have is nonsense.

There is your first mistake.

 

[DriedMangoes]

Actually, it is. It's probably responsible for at least fifty percent of hardware sales to date. Most of the early adopters who wanted an Xbox and play Titanfall had already bought one. Without it, the Xbox would be in dire straits.

Probably. Probably not. Shrug. It's all hearsay at this point.