https://www.videogameschronicle.com...tt-inside-microsofts-plans-for-the-next-xbox/
INSIDE MICROSOFT’S PLANS FOR THE NEXT XBOX
VGC INVESTIGATES MICROSOFT’S TWO-PRONGED STRATEGY FOR NEXT-GEN
10TH MAY 2019 / 12:11 PM
In 2012, a leaked document revealed not only the technical specifications for a new
Xbox, but the brand marketing road map to boot. Seven years later, leaked information is now painting a credible picture of what the
Xbox One successor will be when it arrives in 2020.
In the meantime,
Sony has officially outlined its first
PlayStation 5 details with a tactical glimpse of hardware targets, prompting global media to speculate on this race for raw power.
Nintendo too is reported to be closer to unveiling
new Nintendo Switch versions, while
Google has attempted to derail the entire hardware battle royale with Stadia, a gaming platform that exists in the cloud.
Microsoft’s plans for the next hardware generation have been open to plenty of conjecture. However, our own sources have provided insight on the accuracy of reported tech specs, informing VGC about how this lines up with a necessary strategic direction. Regarding the new Xbox and PS5 in particular, we’ve learned that they are near diametrically opposed in terms of a commercial mission.
“Both Scarlett and PlayStation 5 are fully expected to at least double the performance of the current most powerful console in the world, Xbox One X, which would be ten times the grunt of Xbox One S.”
Microsoft’s so-called Scarlett project (or ‘Xbox Two’, if that’s what you want to go with) is said to be a two-pronged attack, with a premium hardware offering and a lower-priced streaming-oriented device. Both will take full advantage of Microsoft’s robust cloud infrastructure to provide high-end gaming experiences anywhere. Sony and its assumed
PlayStation 5 is being talked of in terms of doubling-down on hardware might at an attractive price, which several sources indicate makes up for Sony’s comparative lack of command in cloud services.
Both Scarlett / Xbox Two and
PlayStation 5 are fully expected to at least double the performance of the current most powerful console in the world,
Xbox One X, which would be ten times the grunt of Xbox One S. While this could well be the last time a next-generation battle is fought on hardware specifications, it is a necessary and entirely relevant evil nonetheless. However, the suggestion is that the much vaunted Xbox power of the cloud is about to make its impact. We asked those in the know to see how this will go…
LEAKED TECH SPECS AND WHAT TO BELIEVE
It is understood that the new Xbox family is being developed under the codename Scarlett and VGC has heard an emphatic 2020 release date from numerous sources. Where it becomes more interesting is the going theory – again acknowledged by our insiders – that there are two versions of the next Xbox expected to launch at the same time, dubbed Lockhart and Anaconda. Lockhart is a stripped back iteration designed for streaming games. Anaconda is the more familiar console generation upgrade and boasts the necessary GPU power and RAM onboard.
The ballpark potential of Scarlett / Xbox Two is best gauged by looking at the Anaconda technical specifications, which
jeuxvideo.com sources have come closest to hitting on the head. The AMD-based chipset has a custom 8 core 16 thread Zen 2 CPU, custom Navi 12+ teraflops GPU, 16GB of GDDR6 RAM and a 1TB NVMe SSD running at 1+ GB/s.
The teraflops target is huge, comparable to a $1200 GTX Titan XP performance. Industry watchers are saying that Anaconda could ship at $499. If true, Anaconda gets close to a 10x performance upgrade above Xbox One at 1.3 TF; double that of Xbox One X at 6 TF. This is a box aimed at delivering 4K at 60+fps, likely being the Most Powerful Console in the World.
Lockhart is arguably the more interesting of the two, designed to appeal to cost-conscious players who want a taste of the next generation but at a slightly lower entry point performance-wise. The CPU is the same custom 8 core / 16 thread Zen 2, and shares the same 1TB NVMe SSD. The GPU, however, is a custom AMD Navi 4+ teraflops, with 12GB GDDR6 RAM onboard. It should still outperform Xbox One X and manage 4K at 60fps. It would play games designed for Anaconda, but with graphical downgrades.
What Microsoft is setting out to achieve, and establish, is a new Xbox family of consoles that provide consumer choice, with backward- and forward-compatibility as part of its DNA. We’ll look further in this article into how the GameCore gaming platform from Microsoft is hoped to allow developers to code one game that suits all platforms, including
PC. But for now, this is the thinking behind Lockhart and Anaconda.
Some insiders are referring to the new consoles as Xbox One S2, and Xbox One X2 respectively, if that helps.
Going back to Anaconda. That 12 teraflops target does seem ambitious, however it is within reach of conservative estimates produced by
Digital Foundry guru Richard Leadbetter. Also, reputable news editor of Kotaku,
Jason Schreier, posted to gaming forum ResetEra on March 27 that, “The only thing to know for sure is that both Sony and Microsoft are aiming higher than that ‘10.7 teraflops’ number that
Google threw out last week,” referring to the unveiling of
Google Stadia technical specifications.
It is revealing that our industry contacts routinely directed the conversation toward software and the cloud. While PlayStation 5 is likely to be largely hardware focused, the success of Scarlett is more about digital store fronts and subscription services as the main source of revenue.
REVISED RAISON D’ÊTRE FOR XBOX IN VIEW
As many of our sources have outlined, Scarlett is not so much about the hardware race as it is about selling software. Since 2013, the way we consume digital entertainment has changed dramatically, with subscriptions to TV and movie services such as Amazon Prime and the ubiquitous
Netflixleading the way. When Microsoft finally does talk publicly about Scarlett, almost certainly at E3 (June 11 – June 13, 2019), don’t be surprised to hear more time dedicated to how next generation games will be delivered and shared than bells and whistles inside each box.
“We understand that Game Pass accounts for an impressive 30 percent of Xbox revenue, and our sources see this as a major factor in the Scarlett equation. It’s a service that Sony cannot easily rival with PlayStation 5.”
The software-driven back-end of Scarlett is the number one priority for Microsoft. The company has roughly 100,000 Xbox servers worldwide for its cloud revolution heralded at the launch of Xbox One. These servers allow for hardware-to-hardware transfer of data required to put a game on the screen without the need to stream video. The latter is a lag-intensive scenario not ideally suited to gaming, with latency of around 130 milliseconds in a best case scenario.
For Lockhart in particular, being offered as a low-cost alternative to Anaconda, the likelihood is that data streaming will allow for Scarlett games to run at 4K at 30fps or 1080p at 60fps on this entry-level box. While this may seem underwhelming on paper, the reality is that less than 10 per cent of players utilise 4K, and the cost consideration is a serious issue for most. Lockhart has very likely been designed for this purpose, and is expected to be a disc-less box similar to the recently announced disc-less Xbox One S, but with all necessary base hardware.
Microsoft recently unveiled
Xbox Game Pass Ultimate, which combines Xbox Live Gold with Xbox Game Pass for a $14.99 monthly charge. This deal was also predicted by one source, who suggested that the service could be ready to go live imminently, but would also allow for data-streaming when the time comes for the Scarlett generation.
Microsoft has not revealed exact subscriber numbers for Game Pass, but we have learned that there are currently some 9.5 million monthly users. Game Pass is an attractive proposition for publishers and developers because Microsoft pays out to developers each time a game is installed. It has become hugely valuable to small independents in particular, who now find themselves with a regular income and a strong community. The deal is similarly beneficial for Microsoft, which doesn’t need to worry about disc manufacture and only takes a royalty cut from games that have been installed, with several games added every week.
We understand that Game Pass accounts for an impressive 30 per cent of Xbox revenue, and our sources see this as a major factor in the Scarlett equation. It’s a service that Sony cannot easily rival with PlayStation 5, and, combined with
Project xCloud, puts Microsoft in a very strong position against Google and Amazon. With PS5, we are told, focus for Sony is hardware first and foremost – a powerful physical console. For Scarlett, Microsoft is putting forward the notion of a next-gen platform playable anywhere.
XCLOUD AND SCARLETT’S ‘SECRET SAUCE’
Billion-dollar datacentres are Scarlett’s not-so-secret weapon, and Microsoft hopes they’ll become the means by which the majority of Xbox owners will receive their entertainment in 2020. As we’ve established, digital downloads and streaming services are to become the driving force of Xbox finances, and the
all-digital, disc-free Xbox One S is an early mover in this direction. It does beg the question of how much better and game-oriented the Azure datacentres truly are in conjunction with Project xCloud, unveiled in October 2018, of which more was revealed last March alongside a live demonstration.
While the first footage of
Forza Motorsport 4 being played on a smart phone displayed some evidence of lag, or seemed weirdly disconnected to the hand-movements of the person demonstrating, as early road-tests go it was impressive, though by Microsoft’s admission still in the early stages.
Public trials begin this year.
Project xCloud levels the playing field for devices as diverse as mobile phones, tablets, existing Xbox One consoles, Windows PC and eventually Scarlett. Because Microsoft owns its datacentres, which serve 140 countries worldwide, it can tailor Azure for purpose.
It has talked about custom hardware, including “component parts of multiple Xbox One consoles, as well as the associated infrastructure supporting it”. The reason this is relevant to Scarlett is that, when the new hardware is eventually introduced, the Project xCloud family of compatible devices could extend the Xbox Play Anywhere proposition. Microsoft has already stated how
Project xCloud is “an integral part of our vision”.
On this point, the reality dawns that Microsoft is moving toward ownership of gaming access in all its forms. If we’re here to consider the chances of Scarlett’s long-term success, software infrastructure combined with physical datacentres is a clear win. But while Microsoft may not be in a huge rush to sell a new generation of console hardware, it does need to beat Sony to the punch by offering next generation performance so that the gaming software becomes exciting again.
If Anaconda is presented as the ultimate incarnation at an achievable price-point, with Lockhart not too far behind, meanwhile Windows PC as an option for those that want to push performance limits of data streaming, or smart phone for lowest-end convenience over 4G, Project xCloud as it evolves with the times makes sense. 1/2