I think it depends on what they aim for and how much money they can make. Truth be told, MS was able to tap into a very niche market and if that was profitable enough to go at it again with the X1, then it'll be a nice pocket of change and a good excuse to snag some more Japanese exclusives. I'm especially excited to see if they continue their previous relationship with the shump dev Cave who have produced some fantastic games for the genre. As long as they don't spend a crazy amount of cash, this could be a solid venture for the xbox in Japan. My biggest is that they'll revive the xboxman mascot and bring him to NA. I feel like there's potential for a XboxMan of War cross-over:It's simply not going to sell in Japan just like their previous consoles.
MS will be lucky to sell around 30k at launch.
My first post was a bit of fun(at both MS and Sony if you look) but I'm being serious in this post.