I have been listening to a podcast with a UK attorney on who has worked with the CMA on a number of deals. He seems fairly certain that the deal is dead unless they divest part of Activision (sell off COD, etc.):From the lawyer
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New report from MLex:
- MS can be encouraged that the CMA didn’t close the door to behavioural remedies, even if divesting is the preferred option.
- The CMA did not slam the door closed. MLex say that there are examples where the CMA has been more forthright in recent past deals, like the provisional decision to block Cérélia's purchase of Jus-Rol or the Meta's acquisition of Giphy, were the CMA literally said that behavioural remedies were “very unlikely“.
- They have until early March to offer remedies to the EC. Therefore, a common package to both is likely.
- Critics of behavioural remedies say that MS could make Call of Duty lag on rival consoles putting PlayStation gamers at a disadvantage when playing online against those using an Xbox. If so, how do you police that? The argument goes that gamers would no doubt get frustrated and switch to Xbox before enforcers could intervene.
- Critics also say that the complex process of games being optimized for different hardware or platforms is quasi-impossible to control, and thus ripe for Microsoft to manipulate to give its own platform an edge.
- Microsoft's defenders point out that rolling out games is already highly contractual. If the existing setup works, why is that not replicable? Disputes can be dealt with swiftly by arbitrators. As a last resort, companies such as Sony have the resources and lawyers to hold Microsoft to its promises.
So yeah, MS still has a tiny window of opportunity before thinking about more drastic measures.
Next 3 weeks are going to be fun!
Call of Halo, Gears of Warfare?I get the feeling without watching that video that Patcher doesn't understand how the CMA work?
MS/Activision should just "kill" COD and make a new Halo or Gears Spin off.
Listening to the UK lawyer with CMA experience he seems to think it's not going to happen.I get the feeling without watching that video that Patcher doesn't understand how the CMA work?
MS/Activision should just "kill" COD and make a new Halo or Gears Spin off.
Listening to the UK lawyer with CMA experience he seems to think it's not going to happen.
Jim's crying again..
Don't call us out on our BS!
What he was saying was that the CMA always mention behavioral remedies in their findings, but that its mainly because they are obligated to and not because they will actually take them as a potential solution.Hard to really say. They have made it clear that they will now consider MS remedies.
About Kotick staying if the deal fails:
Activision CEO Kotick ‘will stay’ in unlikely event Microsoft merger fails: sources
Microsoft announced its intention to acquire Activision Blizzard in January 2022. Activision is known for its "Call of Duty," World of Warcraft" and "Candy Crush" video games.
finance.yahoo.com
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Confidence remains high that the deal will be approved:Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick is in it to win it with the $69 billion merger with Microsoft, sources close to the situation tell FOX Business, but even if regulators were to derail the planned tie-up, he "will absolutely remain at the gaming giant to run the company."
New analyst opinion:The same sources said confidence remains high inside Activision that the U.K.'s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) – which sources told FOX Business is "the only regulatory body that really matters" in the merger case – will look at the numbers and realize the acquisition will not hurt gamers, despite what the CMA alleged on Wednesday.
CMA is the big obstacle to the deal:Analysts also swiped at the CMA's case. In outlining why Microsoft might still be in the pole position to win the merger fight, MoffettNathanson's Clay Griffin, who has an outperform on Activision and a $95 price target, put out a note after the CMA released its initial findings which bluntly stated: "We certainly think the decision, on both accounts, is the wrong anti-trust conclusion"and that "structural remedies – i.e., divesting CoD (Call of Duty), divesting the Activision segment, and/or divesting the Activision segment and the Blizzard segment" in order to satisfy regulators is neither realistic nor necessary to ensure a fair and competitive gaming market. "We won't spend much time here; this is a complete non-sequitur for obvious reasons."
Griffin also noted Microsoft has communicated to the CMA that the tech giant has existing and potential contractual arrangements that ensure third-party platforms access to "Call of Duty."
"This is not new or controversial. Microsoft has committed to this from the very beginning," he wrote in the note.
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Bobby Kotick, Phil Spencer and/or Brad Smith on a plane to UK by late February:Sources told FOX Business the reason the CMA is the "only real potential roadblock" among regulatory bodies is that once the U.K. regulator makes a decision, unlike the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, it offers companies no legal recourse such as a trial.
"Microsoft and Activision would win any U.S. litigation merely on the facts," the sources said.
Sources tell FOX Business both Kotick and an as-yet-unnamed Microsoft executive – possibly Xbox chief Phil Spencer or Microsoft President Brad Smith (who earlier helmed the company's defense against previous antitrust accusations by EU regulators) will "be on a plane by late February" to make the case before the CMA's April deadline.
Sarah Bond up next.Few rumours that succeed or fail this is Phils last move before retirement.
Nah. I don't think Phil is going anywhere for a little while yet. Seems like a man with ambitions and the will to see them through.Sarah Bond up next.