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Microsoft is now expected to try to persuade the UK regulator to accept a behavioural solution in the form of licensing deals, like the agreements it has signed with Nintendo and offered to Sony, according to people familiar with the matter.
[…]
But the US tech giant faces a battle to persuade the CMA to accept such a solution, because of the regulator's general reluctance to accept behavioural remedies over structural solutions such as sell-offs.
A lawyer with knowledge of the deal said there remained a slim chance that the company could successfully argue that licensing deals would be effective.
So if Sony lost the % they said it would actual make it about neck and neck.
"Sony’s not on the phone to us; in fact, they’re not returning our phone calls. One of the things that is surprising to us is that this is the time where, ordinarily, we would be talking about the future and new opportunities together for partnership, and they just haven’t been returning our phone calls. And so, I don’t know that we’re as valuable as maybe they’ve represented to the regulators that we are."
https://mp1st.com/news/bobby-kotick...ls-to-discuss-future-of-cod-new-opportunities
https://mp1st.com/news/bobby-kotick...ls-to-discuss-future-of-cod-new-opportunities
UK CMA's remedies notice in Microsoft-ActivisionBlizzard case is more receptive to non-divestiture remedies than in Facebook-Giphy and various other cases
The discussion of what the UK Competition & Market Authority's provisional findings (released yesterday) mean is in full swing, so I'd like ...
Observations on the CMA's full 277-page provisional findings report concerning Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard
After regular UK office hours, the Competition & Markets Authority (CMA) published additional documents, including the full 277-page version...
From the lawyer
——————
New report from MLex:
- MS can be encouraged that the CMA didn’t close the door to behavioural remedies, even if divesting is the preferred option.
- The CMA did not slam the door closed. MLex say that there are examples where the CMA has been more forthright in recent past deals, like the provisional decision to block Cérélia's purchase of Jus-Rol or the Meta's acquisition of Giphy, were the CMA literally said that behavioural remedies were “very unlikely“.
- They have until early March to offer remedies to the EC. Therefore, a common package to both is likely.
- Critics of behavioural remedies say that MS could make Call of Duty lag on rival consoles putting PlayStation gamers at a disadvantage when playing online against those using an Xbox. If so, how do you police that? The argument goes that gamers would no doubt get frustrated and switch to Xbox before enforcers could intervene.
- Critics also say that the complex process of games being optimized for different hardware or platforms is quasi-impossible to control, and thus ripe for Microsoft to manipulate to give its own platform an edge.
- Microsoft's defenders point out that rolling out games is already highly contractual. If the existing setup works, why is that not replicable? Disputes can be dealt with swiftly by arbitrators. As a last resort, companies such as Sony have the resources and lawyers to hold Microsoft to its promises.
So yeah, MS still has a tiny window of opportunity before thinking about more drastic measures.
Next 3 weeks are going to be fun!
——————
New report from MLex:
- MS can be encouraged that the CMA didn’t close the door to behavioural remedies, even if divesting is the preferred option.
- The CMA did not slam the door closed. MLex say that there are examples where the CMA has been more forthright in recent past deals, like the provisional decision to block Cérélia's purchase of Jus-Rol or the Meta's acquisition of Giphy, were the CMA literally said that behavioural remedies were “very unlikely“.
- They have until early March to offer remedies to the EC. Therefore, a common package to both is likely.
- Critics of behavioural remedies say that MS could make Call of Duty lag on rival consoles putting PlayStation gamers at a disadvantage when playing online against those using an Xbox. If so, how do you police that? The argument goes that gamers would no doubt get frustrated and switch to Xbox before enforcers could intervene.
- Critics also say that the complex process of games being optimized for different hardware or platforms is quasi-impossible to control, and thus ripe for Microsoft to manipulate to give its own platform an edge.
- Microsoft's defenders point out that rolling out games is already highly contractual. If the existing setup works, why is that not replicable? Disputes can be dealt with swiftly by arbitrators. As a last resort, companies such as Sony have the resources and lawyers to hold Microsoft to its promises.
So yeah, MS still has a tiny window of opportunity before thinking about more drastic measures.
Next 3 weeks are going to be fun!
I have been listening to a podcast with a UK attorney on who has worked with the CMA on a number of deals. He seems fairly certain that the deal is dead unless they divest part of Activision (sell off COD, etc.):
- The option of behavioral remedies are always listed as a possibility (it's required), but it doesn't read that they think it is a possibility to him. He thinks that it is just lip service and that the CMA isn't really going to entertain this as an option.
- Behavioral remedies have only been accepted once out of the last 45 times they have objected (don't quote my numbers, but it was close to that) and that was a special case.
I get the feeling without watching that video that Patcher doesn't understand how the CMA work?
MS/Activision should just "kill" COD and make a new Halo or Gears Spin off.
MS/Activision should just "kill" COD and make a new Halo or Gears Spin off.
Listening to the UK lawyer with CMA experience he seems to think it's not going to happen.
Hard to really say. They have made it clear that they will now consider MS remedies.
Activision is asking something similar from Nintendo as has MS now done the same with google….I’m surprised they didn’t go after Nvidia
What he was saying was that the CMA always mention behavioral remedies in their findings, but that its mainly because they are obligated to and not because they will actually take them as a potential solution.
Probably going to do more like that," Meservey tells Axios regarding the Twitter thread. "It's like, if there are things that we think people should know about, we should just go ahead and say it out loud."
She acknowledged some internal worry about the thread, specifically over whether it would anger Sony, which opposes the deal but also works with Activision to bring Call of Duty and other top company franchises to PlayStation.
"We're a partner to them," she says. "Were they worried about pissing us off when they tried to kill a really good deal that our employees wanted and that players wanted? Were they worried about pissing us off when they made all these claims that seem to be pretty disingenuous? And we didn't take it personally. … They're making the case for what's best for their business."
Report from Yahoo/FOX Business with new info:
About Kotick staying if the deal fails:
Activision CEO Kotick ‘will stay’ in unlikely event Microsoft merger fails: sources
Microsoft announced its intention to acquire Activision Blizzard in January 2022. Activision is known for its "Call of Duty," World of Warcraft" and "Candy Crush" video games.
finance.yahoo.com
Click to shrink...
Confidence remains high that the deal will be approved:
New analyst opinion:
CMA is the big obstacle to the deal:
Bobby Kotick, Phil Spencer and/or Brad Smith on a plane to UK by late February:
Few rumours that succeed or fail this is Phils last move before retirement.
Nah. I don't think Phil is going anywhere for a little while yet. Seems like a man with ambitions and the will to see them through.