This discussion is going in circles. No one is saying that shipped equals sold to consumers. And PR departments are going to PR.
Numbers Discussion Thread
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It was said by masters and quoted from green. It was said and questioned. So, we can't say "no one" was saying it.
I'm sure they have some great sales data and tracking, but we never get wind of that stuff.
I'm sure they do, but if you aren't getting exact numbers from retailers then they have to estimate. Europe is well known to have many parts that do not give sale feedback or do not have companies that track sales Data in them. Aren't NPD also estimated ? If I recall correct they do not track Toys R us for example, or plenty of other places.
Yeah, not everything is actually tracked by NPD. I'd assume Sony would just go by how many they have sent out basically. Maybe all retailers don't have to give out what they actually sell? Not sure on those. Retailers obviously order games and will order more based on how many they have sold and how many they have left. I'm not sure how stores they guage new releases and quantities Probably why pre-order data is important.
For gamers, it is more academic, but sales figures are important for investors & publishers.
For instance, it may determine if its still cost effective to make cross gen games, or full next gen. When a console maker ask a publishers to make exclusive content or exclusive game, they will look at market share to see if its worth the deal. Examples like that.
All info are estimation of course, but there is a difference between estimation pull out of thin air, & proper professional estimation base on data, experience etc.
I give an example from my line of work.
For example, if a customers give us a set of a specification & design, & asked us for quoted price, the price we quote is also an estimation, until we get into details, & actually make the product, do we have actual figures.
But we have sets of data, rules, experience that we (the people who made the price anyway) can get the estimated value with confidence within 10-15% final price. Estimation doesn't mean data are worthless.
I am sure people who made this estimation (unit sold) are professional , they are giving us as good an estimation of real-life as possible, as long as we accept that the value is maybe slight inflated (by console makers) 5% or so, & the figures are 10-15% of reality.
I don't think NPD is there for us to bicker, it just happens to be there for us to bicker over. I'd actually say forums is a good reason NPD is no longer allowed to release this info lol
PS1 - 102 Million
N64 - 33 Million
Saturn - 9.5 Million
Total - 114.5 Million
PS2 - 155 Million
Xbox - 24 Million
Gamecube - 22 Million
Dreamcast - 10.5 Million
Total - 221.5 Million
Wii - 100 Million
360 - 83 + Million
PS3 - 83 + Million
Total - 266 + Million
Will the Wii U end up selling the same as Gamecube or N64?
Will that PS2 number ever be matched?
Can PS4 and X1 sustain their momentum?
Why on Earth did I buy a Saturn instead of a Playstation? (Sega Rally + VF2, I guess)
Happy Easter everyone, enjoy some Cadbury Creme Eggs.
N64 - 33 Million
Saturn - 9.5 Million
Total - 114.5 Million
PS2 - 155 Million
Xbox - 24 Million
Gamecube - 22 Million
Dreamcast - 10.5 Million
Total - 221.5 Million
Wii - 100 Million
360 - 83 + Million
PS3 - 83 + Million
Total - 266 + Million
Will the Wii U end up selling the same as Gamecube or N64?
Will that PS2 number ever be matched?
Can PS4 and X1 sustain their momentum?
Why on Earth did I buy a Saturn instead of a Playstation? (Sega Rally + VF2, I guess)
Happy Easter everyone, enjoy some Cadbury Creme Eggs.
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I do not think current gen will make last gen figures, as many people are going mobiles. But we shall see.
I have been thinking the Wii U would end up around the Gamecube. Of course that was a time when the numbers were better. I think with Mario Kart and Smash Brothers coming they can get a big push to get them to that Plateau.
No eventually the price of the PS4 and the Xbox One will catch up to the potential install base. 2015 will be a good gauge of how far these boxes will go at their current prices.
Time for a complete reassessment of their marketing strategy.Time for that price drop to happen!
Microsoft has always excelled at fielding and fixing faulty products. They use first adopters as a test bed for their software/hardware in the real world and in real time, and it's a method that works rather well for them. I think they borrowed it from government contractors.
So technically, every game is faulty then. The perfect game is just an imaginary concept unattainable by all.
I'll have to go back and read McNasty's posts. He's saying sold through to customers is the same as shipped?
He's pretty much implying his guess of TF pushing X1 to 5.2-5.5 million sales was "close" because MS announced 5 million shipped to retailers.
How do you define console "success"? In terms of consoles sold, or profit? PS3 eventually caught up to 360 in sales but still lost Sony billions of dollars and nearly wiped out all the profit they made on PS1 and PS2.
Thinking about how much MS spent in R&D, marketing, exclusives, manufacturing, TV deals, price drops and free game bundles, and other costs on Xbox One, they might be in the red for a long time, or looking at a net loss. That's why I'm still confident they're going to unbundle kinect for an aggressive $100 official price drop without losing too much money on each console sold.
Both PS4 and Xbox have greater supply available than previous console launches. They'll both eventually dip beneath PS2 and Wii's sales momentum at least in the mid-term. There's no way PS4 will keep selling a million a month every month.
If you asked me before both consoles were announced which would have more powerful hardware and sell more, I'd bet the Xbox 720. It's pretty shocking what ended up happening.
Thinking about how much MS spent in R&D, marketing, exclusives, manufacturing, TV deals, price drops and free game bundles, and other costs on Xbox One, they might be in the red for a long time, or looking at a net loss. That's why I'm still confident they're going to unbundle kinect for an aggressive $100 official price drop without losing too much money on each console sold.
Both PS4 and Xbox have greater supply available than previous console launches. They'll both eventually dip beneath PS2 and Wii's sales momentum at least in the mid-term. There's no way PS4 will keep selling a million a month every month.
If you asked me before both consoles were announced which would have more powerful hardware and sell more, I'd bet the Xbox 720. It's pretty shocking what ended up happening.
No idea, I still think they need to go back to the 49.99 and 39.99 price tag for smaller, titles. How long did MS do the 49.99 for first party?
I think, when you bring down the price of consoles, you also need to make the software look better. Atleast test it for a year. they should do super budget titles , (old titles) as new releases with a cheaper price. Convince the stores for more floor space is what I would do. I would revolve it much like they do PS+ Once I felt I had sold every topy at the new price, cheaper prices (30 to 20) I would then have about a 10 game selection of top titles, 3rd party included.
I'd price those games from 4.99 to 9.99
It's too early in the gen to do this but for example. By year two, Knack and killzone should enter this special price shelf.
Year 5 of ps3 could have seen, resistance, MGS, uncharted and other 3rd party games near these price points as a new release special buy label.
This actually does many many things,
pricing old games 4.99 to 9.99 at retail (as greatest hits, or classics at this point)
- (it kills the used game market they want to kill) why buy used when you can buy new
-gives you free money basically (it would still be profit) WHY not do it, they are more than likely going to sell, and if they don't you replace the ones that don't with something else. This would also be huge during holidays, or just when someone was flat out bored and see them.
-Would allow for digital sales as well at the same costs
-would make your hardware look much more appealing for new buyers
-I don't believe it would hurt your new game market, as the hardcore have probably already bought and played these games anyways.
I think, when you bring down the price of consoles, you also need to make the software look better. Atleast test it for a year. they should do super budget titles , (old titles) as new releases with a cheaper price. Convince the stores for more floor space is what I would do. I would revolve it much like they do PS+ Once I felt I had sold every topy at the new price, cheaper prices (30 to 20) I would then have about a 10 game selection of top titles, 3rd party included.
I'd price those games from 4.99 to 9.99
It's too early in the gen to do this but for example. By year two, Knack and killzone should enter this special price shelf.
Year 5 of ps3 could have seen, resistance, MGS, uncharted and other 3rd party games near these price points as a new release special buy label.
This actually does many many things,
pricing old games 4.99 to 9.99 at retail (as greatest hits, or classics at this point)
- (it kills the used game market they want to kill) why buy used when you can buy new
-gives you free money basically (it would still be profit) WHY not do it, they are more than likely going to sell, and if they don't you replace the ones that don't with something else. This would also be huge during holidays, or just when someone was flat out bored and see them.
-Would allow for digital sales as well at the same costs
-would make your hardware look much more appealing for new buyers
-I don't believe it would hurt your new game market, as the hardcore have probably already bought and played these games anyways.
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You have to put into factor though each one of those console's predecessors.
The Xbox 360 did very well but it didn't completely stomp its competition. The PS2 on the other hand did though which thus made the drop from PS2 --> PS3 more of a "failure".
not only in hardware sales, but 3rd party exclusives, and game sales as well. Which is what is bad for us in the end.
Those exclusives were games we probably wouldn't see ever, without that situation happening for one box.
A lot of teams weren't built for multi console development, and a lot of studios still don't do that. They still have a lot of developers that have a 2nd developer handle ports and other work.
I think people are over-emphasizing the PS4 advertising. I also find it a bit ironic how Titanfall was viewed by some as "not helping the Xbox One much" because it wasn't a true exclusive but yet some of the same people are saying that Destiny and Watchdogs will greatly help the PS4 when yet those games will be out on far more platforms.
Now, the PS4 advertising for Watchdogs and Destiny (in my opinion) would actually matter if the games were only coming to current gen consoles or if the last gen versions of those games were going to come out say a month or two after the current gen versions. But that's not going to happen. Watchdogs and Destiny are coming out to the PS3, Xbox 360, PS4, and Xbox One and all of the versions will come out at the same time. A great number of people who only have last gen consoles at the time of the release of Watchdogs and/or Destiny aren't going to spend $400+ just for a game that will be released on their last gen console(s) on the same exact date.
So yeah, I personally feel that people are over-emphasizing how much of an impact the PS4 advertising of Destiny and Watchdogs will help the PS4. The games are releasing on too many platforms on the same (release) date.
I have assumed atleast 14 million for PS4 after December. Haven't really considered X1 too much, as there is too many things that can happen to affect that.
I do think if the price drop comes late X1 is looking at a rough next 3 months, possibly very rough. If they don't do something I don't think they would manage 1 milliion world wide over May, June and July.
If they do something, I think they can increase that number by about 40 to 80 percent depending on what they actually do of course.
We are currently looking at a near 7 million to about 4.3 million number. I think PS4 will continue to push on average anywhere from 400k to 800k monthly over that same time frame of May to July.
We'll just say 9.5 million versus what I'm going to assume will be near 5.5 million (maybe less) LIke I said though, this is with current plans and sony is actually getting out a few really wanted titles (yes, I do count tlou) even if I don't find it to be the best of best games for this time, I think it will continue the sales of the system a bit.
My numbers are mostly based on MS not changing the situation, but I really feel they probably will do some price drop in May... so those numbers could go up quite a bit that I am actually guessing on.
If the numbers I'm thinking hold true 9.5 to 5.5 then that would leave us with 5 months. I do think PS4 will have a bigger holiday than last and that they will sell everything they produce and I'd imagine they are going to have huge huge numbers this Holiday. Atleast, I would assume they are aware of this and will ship more units this holiday season to the US than they ever have before. So, I think the 14 million number could even be a little conservative. Japanese games will also be coming, and i am wondering if the japanese market will finally pick up a bit as well.
So, let's say MS does do some sku changes, takes out Kinect. What do they really need to do to make a dent?
I think they really must under cut sony, and even then it isn't going to propel them above, so it's a hard decision to make for MS at this point. You gain market share but you lose profits... I know they are a smart company and they are weighing this very thing out right now I'm sure.
Sony must also go 349.99 if MS does it, just to make sure. I wouldn't wait if I was them.
So, I have changed my ideas just a little. I'm going to put it like this
Jan. 2015
PS4 ( 14 to 15 million units sold)
X1 (8 to 10 million) too many factors..
If this does happen with Sony approaching VR at this time and MS still falling behind in this regard. I think this generation will be over without a doubt if the above is true and I do think a lot of 3rd party exclusives will start dropping X1 just a bit.
Other than that, let's see what MS has paid for to be exclusive at the end of this year, I'm expecting 3 or 4 big franchises maybe even GTA... (I wouldn't even be surprised) before we can ceclare any of the above as happening though. There does have to be a point when MS settles for what they have and stops that as well. If things get bad enough, I think they will go to a new box actually, or drop out of the game business. These are my overall bold predicitions. I firmly believe they got in the market to hit ps2 and greater like numbers, this is the whole reason they pushed the xbox out and pushed the 360 out so soon, it was all for this reason. I do believe this, rather anyone agrees or not is fine. Just my own idea. So, I don't know if they really want to do this strat all over again... it will get tiring and annoying I guess.
And for next month I have already guessed PS4 > 300k and > 65k more than x1. I'd be very very surpised if X1 is close to PS3 in April, not saying it's impossible. It will just surprise me in the same way as march.
I do think if the price drop comes late X1 is looking at a rough next 3 months, possibly very rough. If they don't do something I don't think they would manage 1 milliion world wide over May, June and July.
If they do something, I think they can increase that number by about 40 to 80 percent depending on what they actually do of course.
We are currently looking at a near 7 million to about 4.3 million number. I think PS4 will continue to push on average anywhere from 400k to 800k monthly over that same time frame of May to July.
We'll just say 9.5 million versus what I'm going to assume will be near 5.5 million (maybe less) LIke I said though, this is with current plans and sony is actually getting out a few really wanted titles (yes, I do count tlou) even if I don't find it to be the best of best games for this time, I think it will continue the sales of the system a bit.
My numbers are mostly based on MS not changing the situation, but I really feel they probably will do some price drop in May... so those numbers could go up quite a bit that I am actually guessing on.
If the numbers I'm thinking hold true 9.5 to 5.5 then that would leave us with 5 months. I do think PS4 will have a bigger holiday than last and that they will sell everything they produce and I'd imagine they are going to have huge huge numbers this Holiday. Atleast, I would assume they are aware of this and will ship more units this holiday season to the US than they ever have before. So, I think the 14 million number could even be a little conservative. Japanese games will also be coming, and i am wondering if the japanese market will finally pick up a bit as well.
So, let's say MS does do some sku changes, takes out Kinect. What do they really need to do to make a dent?
I think they really must under cut sony, and even then it isn't going to propel them above, so it's a hard decision to make for MS at this point. You gain market share but you lose profits... I know they are a smart company and they are weighing this very thing out right now I'm sure.
Sony must also go 349.99 if MS does it, just to make sure. I wouldn't wait if I was them.
So, I have changed my ideas just a little. I'm going to put it like this
Jan. 2015
PS4 ( 14 to 15 million units sold)
X1 (8 to 10 million) too many factors..
If this does happen with Sony approaching VR at this time and MS still falling behind in this regard. I think this generation will be over without a doubt if the above is true and I do think a lot of 3rd party exclusives will start dropping X1 just a bit.
Other than that, let's see what MS has paid for to be exclusive at the end of this year, I'm expecting 3 or 4 big franchises maybe even GTA... (I wouldn't even be surprised) before we can ceclare any of the above as happening though. There does have to be a point when MS settles for what they have and stops that as well. If things get bad enough, I think they will go to a new box actually, or drop out of the game business. These are my overall bold predicitions. I firmly believe they got in the market to hit ps2 and greater like numbers, this is the whole reason they pushed the xbox out and pushed the 360 out so soon, it was all for this reason. I do believe this, rather anyone agrees or not is fine. Just my own idea. So, I don't know if they really want to do this strat all over again... it will get tiring and annoying I guess.
And for next month I have already guessed PS4 > 300k and > 65k more than x1. I'd be very very surpised if X1 is close to PS3 in April, not saying it's impossible. It will just surprise me in the same way as march.
Yeah...no, I don't buy that sorry excuse that many try to push on people.
1. When the PS2 came out, there really wasn't anything to compete with PS2 that offered for the most part, the same multiplats.
2. When the PS2 came out, it was fairly affordable compared to competitors
3. PS2 sales were an anamoly. Check the sale of pretty much most consoles in history, and you'll see that PS2 sales didn't represent the norm.
You can't "expect" the PS3 to have sold the same as PS2 when considering the above. Look at the PS3 on it's own merits, and stop comparing it to previous playstations. The PS3 came out a year later while another similar console was out. The PS3 came out at a higher price point. The PS3 still managed to end last year selling about as much as 360s, with a year less out on the market and costing more.....during a generation when gamers swore up and down that they would never catch up.
In the end, the PS3 was not a "massive" failure as many were claiming.
XB1 on the flip side, is losing steam in the one market that they should be ahead of Sony....AND, they lost steam during a month that they released their over hyped game. That speaks volumns, as that most likely means that in the next few months, they will lose steam some more.
Yes, compared to initial 360 sales, the XB1 is doing better, but they're losing steam too quick right now. Will you the XB1 a massive failure if they continue to lose steam this year?
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What? Excuse? What excuse? It's a fact. The PS2 absolutely crushed the competition.
I don't see what any of that has to do with the great success of the PS2. The PS2 was very hard to find at launch + the majority of sales of the PS2 came AFTER the Xbox and Gamecube launched, therefore the system maintained its great appeal years after it originally launched. I mean, if anything the PS2's launch period was the worse time for the Ps2 since there weren't that many games for the system and the system was at the time mainly known for being the cheapest DVD player. It wasn't until after 2001 that the ball got rolling with the system crushing the competition when it came to game library (which was far more diverse than what the Xbox and Gamecube offered).
I don't think anyone thought it would sell the same as the PS2. I didn't even say that in my post. However, people DID NOT expect the PS3 to have such a huge drop in comparison to the PS2 during the first half of the gen. The Xbox brand still wasn't that popular back in 2005/2006, the Gamecube was pretty much phased out at that point, and the Wii was the butt of many jokes from (hard)core gamers. The Playstation brand was in fantastic shape during that time. So yeah, people expected the PS3 to do very well.
I don't see how that has anything to do with what I said. The Playstation brand took a huge hit during the previous gen.
But the Xbox One is selling greater in hardware and software than its predecessor. The PS3 didn't do that... mainly because of its higher price vs. the competition at the time of its release. The gap between the Xbox One and PS4 in America is smaller than the gap was during the first year of the PS3's life vs. the Xbox 360 in America... mainly because the Xbox 360 came out first. Also remember, back in 2005/2006 the Playstation brand was far more popular in North America than the Xbox brand. The Xbox brand didn't become identified with North America until around 2008/2009.
How is the XB1 losing steam? The system didn't sell more than the PS4 last month with the release of Titanfall, but the system DID sell more in March than it did in February and in February it sold more than it did in January. The sales have been increasing each month so I don't see how that's "losing steam".
I do expect XB1 sales to go down this month though since there really aren't any major games coming out. I feel the same for the PS4 too. Things for both consoles will pick up again during the fall though with more major games coming.
1. I never called the PS3 a failure. I put failure in quotes in my previous post since I was replying to the narrative that people gave the system during its early life.
2. As I pretty much said above, it's a bit strange to say that a system is "losing steam" when yet the sales of the said system have been increasing every month this year so far. In what world is a minimum of 100,000 more consoles sold each month "losing steam"?
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Sorry, I wasn't clear. The PS2 crushed the competition...because there wasn't competition that was on par to the PS2, not in terms of offering the same games. What I'm saying though, is that you can't compare the PS3 sales to PS2 sales because the PS3 DID have competition, and had comp from a console that was out a whole year, was cheaper, and had better versions of the games. That's why I say to judge PS3 on it's own merits, compare it's sales to 360. Don't compare to PS2, because PS2 was a whole different monster, during a different time, different conditions, different offerings by competitors, etc.
It has a lot to do with everything if you're going to try and compare PS2 sales to PS3 sales.
And the PS3 did do very well. Again, different times, different conditions, different gaming era, different gamer base, etc. You do know that many of those PS2 gamers are no longer gamers...right?
It sure has sold more....but it's also losing steam a whole lot quicker. 360 continued to gain momentum as the years went on, XB1 came out with a bang, but interest seems to be waning. It couldn't even beat out PS4 in it's primary territory during a very major game release.
Come on man....it's losing steam. It only sold a bit more than in Feb because of TF....but not even close to selling what it really should have. That minor bump during a major release....dude, in context....
Fair enough, but I know it was a popular war cry from xbox fans for quite some time, despite PS3 end the generation with about the same PS3s sold as 360, which tells us that PS3s actually sold more per year than 360.
It's losing steam in regards to losing ground in it's primary territory. XB1 should have owned March with the release of TF. I don't care that Xb1 sold a bit better in march than in Feb....it should have owned March.....they should have done so easily.
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