It is impresive considering they don't have a retail exclusive really worth getting. If they had stock and that go to game... would have been pretty huge... honestly. Speculation or whatever but easily 8 to 10 million right now if they had stock and that "halo, mario" game.
I'd also imagine they will hit a small dry spell during the summer months and leading up to the holiday but it's a easy guess to say overall holiday numbers from october to the end of december should be up quite a bit. Well, stock could actually still be an issue if they continue to sell well world wide. That really seems to be why they are having stock issues... but it seems they could actually approach 16 million in year one? is that feasible at all? I know sales will die down a bit in a few places here and there and it will also get some competition if MS decides to drop the price (which seems more and more likely)
4 months = 6 million 8 months = possibly 11 to 12 million, plus a bigger hoiday for teh remaining 4. Seems 15 million is easily possible perhaps. I think their production is staying the same though and I'd expect all units to be gone by the holidays even if the units sit a bit prior to that.
They really need to pump more into getting more games, and getting more games out in time. I geuss though, considering the japan situation and others, they could start seeing more and more exclusives, ps3 has been atleast as well.
There is honestly only one reason I really care about sales, and that is getting a diverse and unique line up of games. I hope the games come and sell well enough to revive the industry a bit.